It’s been a rough month for Jacob deGrom ($11,800) and I am slightly concerned that will continue tonight. deGrom has not returned close to his value in two of his last three starts and will face the Nationals who rank 3rd in wOBA in the L7. Washington is a desperate club right now, which is a scary team to target. Combine that with deGrom’s recent struggles and high price tag makes him a fade for me today.
On the flip side, Jon Lester ($10,600) has my interest. Similarly to deGrom, Lester hasn’t returned a ton of fantasy points to his owners in the L30 but his matchup is infinitely better. The Cardinals are 27th in wOBA in the L7 and have struggled to hit LHP all season long, posted one of the bottom five wOBAs in the league. Lester is sporting a 9.53 K/9 in the L30 which is the third highest on the slate. That should combine nicely with STL’s 26% K rate vs. LHP, the highest in the league.
I suppose we have to talk about Josh Tomlin ($10,000) here. He’s been ridiculous, averaging 25.30 DK points a game in his L30, the highest on the slate. My concern is sample size. This guy only has five starts this season and his price tag has spiked. He’s certainly in-line for another good game against the White Sox today, but I wonder if this bubble will burst soon.
Has JA Happ ($7,000) found something in Pittsburgh? It certainly looks like it! Happ tops our Pitcher Value Chart today, averaging 23.18 DK points per game over his L5 starts. A game of that caliber today would return 3.3x his salary, providing the best value on the board. While the ballpark isn’t great today, the Reds rank 20th in wOBA vs. LHP this season. Happ is also a sizable road favorite at -153.
If you’re a fan of advanced metrics, then you are a fan of Mat Latos ($6,200) today. His L30 xFIP is the best on the slate and he is one of only two pitcher with 10+ K/9 in the L30 (deGrom). Unfortunately, his stats haven’t translated into fantasy points. That could change tonight versus the miserable Angels, who rank 22nd in wOBA in the L7 and 29th in the second half of the season.
Interesting combinations of matchups down the stretch with teams that are still fighting for playoff contention. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.