Pitchers
JaCob deGrom ($12,300) is going to be heavily owned and for good reason. The young phenom sported a 27.2% K Rate last season which was 7th amongst all starting pitchers. He will be making his season debut today against the Phillies at home, a place where deGrom was nearly untouchable last season. deGrom posted a 1.99 ERA at home compared to his 3.09 ERA on the road. He gets the dismal lineup that the Phillies will run out today. As expected, deGrom is a massive favorite to win the game (-245) and is deployable in all formats.
You should be aware of Jaime Garcia ($9,400) today. He was excellent down the stretch for the Cardinals last season, sporting a 7-3 record with a 2.87 ERA in his final 13 starts. His 19% K Rate is about average on this slate but he should benefit from an excellent matchup and good ballpark. The Braves had the second worst wOBA in the league against LHP last season and Turner Field surrendered 7% less runs than the league average.
If you’re looking for value, Eric Surkamp ($6,000) comes with high risk, but also high reward. He has limited innings in MLB, but has been a high strikeout pitcher during his minor league career. His minor league K/9 has hovered near the 10K/9 mark at times and will face the Mariners tonight. The biggest factor in favor of Surkamp tonight is that this game is being played in Seattle. Safeco Field was the fourth most pitcher-friendly park in the league last season and the Mariners ranked 21st in wOBA at home. There are plenty of unknown factors for Surkamp, but he has little history for the Mariners to be able to use against him.
Team Stacks
I love the Cincinnati Reds as a real contrarian stack tonight. They face Francisco Liriano who was dominant in his first outing this season. I expect many owners to be back on Liriano again tonight. However, if you’ve paid attention, Liriano has been the prime example of volatility in his career. He is just as likely to strike out ten as he is to give up ten runs. The Reds have favorable lefty splits in the form of Zack Cozart ($3,200), Joey Votto ($4,300) and Eugenio Suarez ($3,500) who all posted wOBas over .350 last season against LHP. Finally, this game is to be played in Cincy, which boasts Great American Ballpark as one of the leagues most hitter-friendly parks.
The Houston Astros are often overlooked as a potential team stack and I think it’s because of their high K%. They strike out a ton, but are capable of putting up crooked numbers in every inning. They scored the 6th most runs in the league last year and boasted the second best wOBA in MLB, only behind the vaunted Blue Jays. You know the big names like Carlos Correa ($4,900) who is the top scorer on DraftKings so far this young season. However there is plenty of value in the cleanup spot (presumably) with Colby Rasmus checking in at $3,400. This is a team that relies on the long ball to score, headed to Miller Park which surrendered 40% more HRs than the league average.