Welcome back to DFSonDemand! Today we have an 8 game slate that starts at 3:35 today. Yesterday was a pretty crazy day on the diamond, and if you played a Yankees stack, you probably won a good chunk of change! Let’s dive into today’s top pitchers.
PITCHERS
Today is a rough day when it comes to finding great plays toeing the rubber, but I have a few targets that I am looking at. The first play of the day is Danny Salazar ($9,700). Salazar is going to be a chalky play, and it is because he is the most recognizable name on the slate. Salazar finished 2015 with a 27.5% strikeout rate when pitching at home. That presents some upside with strikeouts. The downside to this, is the fact that the Red Sox had a .334 wOBA in 2015, so they do hit right-handed pitchers well. The Indians are a -137 favorite at the moment with the line at 7.5 runs. The wind is blowing in from right-field at around 15MPH today, so that is a plus for Salazar. To add onto the home success, Salazar also finished 2015 with a .281 wOBA against at home. One would imagine the Red Sox run out a similar lineup to the past two games, so their offense does have some thump. Salazar is a top option because of the strikeout upside that he possesses.
I believe that you’re going to start with Salazar, especially in cash, and throw a dart somewhere else. The majority of the weather reports have winds blowing out today, which doesn’t bode well for these pitchers. Along with that, a lot of these pitchers have a higher wOBA with lower strikeout rates. I believe that Adam Conley ($7,300) deserves a shot in a tournament because the Nationals offense has not looked good in their brief 2016 campaign. Note that Conley does have one of the higher strikeout rates on this slate.
Another guy with a higher strikeout rate is Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,500). Jimenez is going to face the Twins, who could present him issues with some of the power bats in their lineup. However, Jimenez did have a 22% strikeout rate at home last season and is a -134 favorite in today’s game. Some of the bigger bats in the Twins lineup come with higher strikeout rates, so maybe he hits the perfect spot. This game could see some rain, so pay attention to the weather reports.
STACKS
As you can see in the section above, I am not too high on the pitching today. There are a ton of guys with low strikeout rates and high wOBA’s. That presents a huge issue, which is why I will lean to tournaments today and stack some lineups.
The White Sox are an interesting stack today as Adam Eaton ($4,600) and Jose Abreu ($5,100) are both sporting a wOBA greater than .365 versus right-handed pitchers. Melky Cabrera is going to be in the second spot, according to the lineup reports. If that is true, he could make an interesting option at ($3,900). Kendall Graveman does get the assignment today against the White Sox and shouldn’t miss too many bats. Along with that, he allowed a .342 wOBA to right-handed hitters and .324 to lefties. The wind is blowing out to dead center in this game, and that could lead to this game going over the 8.5 total that Vegas put on it.
On the other end of this, you can justify stacking the Athletics against Mat Latos, who has been deadful since the tail end of his stay in Cincinnati. Danny Valencia ($3,700) is going to hit in the four spot and comes into this with a .374 wOBA and .271 ISO against right-handed pitchers. If the wind is blowing out, he could leave the yard. Chris Coghlan ($3,500) and Josh Reddick ($4,100) could round out this stack as they will hit in the middle of the order as well. Both players finished 2015 with a wOBA greater than .350 against right-handed hitters. Not against a full-game stack here.
If you want to go back to the well and stack the Yankees and Astros, I think that is a viable option as the park factor is plus and the wind is pushing toward left-field, which may be advantageous for right-handed hitters. Mark Teixeira ($4,400) is a top play in this game as he finished 2015 with a .399 wOBA versus right-handed pitchers to go along with a .339 ISO. Yes, a .339 ISO! The power is most definitely there for Tex in this matchup. Mike Fiers was pretty good against lefties last year, but allowed 10 homers to them. Carlos Correa ($4,800) is going to be super chalk today with the pitching discount and his recent dinger streak. The wind is blowing out toward left-field, so if he gets one in the air, it could end up over the fence since Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly huge. Carlos Beltran ($3,900) is another interesting option as he ended 2015 with a .358 wOBA and .196 ISO versus righties.
I would look to the Cubs lefties as a very good option today. Last season, Rubby De La Rosa allowed a .404 wOBA to left-handed bats. That is going to put Anthony Rizzo ($5,200), Kyle Schwarber ($4,500) and Dexter Fowler ($4,500) toward the top of my options. These guys could mash De La Rosa in a game that has a run total of 9. Oh, and did I mention that Rubby allowed 1.5 homeruns per 9 innings last year? The long ball opportunities are going to be there for the Cubs today.
As lineups come out, I will be posting updates on Twitter, so make sure you’re following me.