It should be no surprise that Steph Curry ($10,900) tops my NBA Projections today. Not only is he one of the highest scoring players in the league at 1.54 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he’s going to receive a nice boost from his matchup with the Suns. Phoenix has been dreadful against PGs, allowing the 3rd most points to the position. Additionally, the Warriors get a boost from Vegas as tonight’s line is 216.5, up from their average of 210.57. It’s rare for the Warriors to get that big of a boost from the Vegas line, so it’s certainly a situation we want to take advantage of tonight.
My favorite GPP point guard might have to be Chris Paul ($8,400) who’s averaging 43.05 DraftKings points per game in his last five. A really impressive outing on Wednesday night posting a 24-8-5 line against the very stingy Utah Jazz. He goes from the worst matchup in UTA, to the best matchup versus the Pelicans tonight. Paul needs 50.4 DraftKings points to reach full value tonight, which I calculate he will hit 13.3% of the time. That’s a fairly high number for a player with a salary this high.
Keep a close eye on the Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report. Ricky Rubio is currently questionable and if he sits, Zach Lavine ($4,800) enters as one of the top value plays on the board. Lavine is already averaging 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season, so any increase in playing time or usage is going to be a massive benefit. In the four games that Rubio has missed this season, Lavine is averaging 33.5 DraftKings points which would be 6.9x value at his salary today. If you need more convincing, Minnesota receives the biggest boost tonight from Vegas. Minny’s average O/U this season is 202 while this game is posted with a massive 217 line.
All those factors will also benefit Andrew Wiggins ($7,100) who is going to be nearly impossible to avoid in GPPs. Wiggins has been volatile but has shown tremendous upside this season, exactly what you’re looking for in GPPs. Between the Vegas boost and potentially Rubio sitting, Wiggins also gets a massive benefit from the Kings defense. No team in the league has been worse against SGs this season. This has all the ingredients for a Wiggins explosion tonight.
Tobias Harris ($6,100) has been earning a ton of minutes for the Magic and racking up the fantasy points in the process. He is higher risk than most SFs, but has tallied 30+ DraftKings points in five of seven games, while averaging 32.5 DraftKings points in that span. A small boost from the Vegas line for the Magic, but a huge positional boost. No team in the league is giving up more DraftKings points to SFs than the Bucks.
The price is rising quickly on Robert Covington ($5,100) but he’s still a bit underpriced. Since returning from injury and taking over his normal role for the Sixers, Covington has tallied 35.5, 32.5 and 45 DraftKings points. He’s an integral piece of this offense, firing 41 shots in those three games. His long range prowess is added incentive with the three point bonus on DK. Covington shows great length and a nose for the ball, filling the stat sheet with 11 steals and 3 blocks in those three contests. He can fill it up in a hurry and gets a nice matchup with the Rockets who continue to look lost in most aspects this season.
It’s worth noting that Ryan Anderson ($6,600) is absolutely scorching right now. He’s averaging 38.3 DraftKings points in his last five games, scoring at least 20 real points in each of those contests. He’s often overlooked at the PF position since his teammate Anthony Davis also resides there, but both play big minutes for the Pellies. It’s certainly reasonable for Anderson’s good run to continue tonight against the Clippers, which is a game slated with a big 213.5 line, one of the highest on the board.
Well, for whatever reason the price on Andre Drummond ($9,100) keeps coming down. He was $9,700 just two games ago and is coming off a massive 18-20 game against the Heat on Wednesday. No one can stop Drummond this season and he has been a virtual lock for 5x value every night. Another high total, fast paced game coming against the Thunder who should be able to provide very little resistance to Drummond in the paint. Whether they use some combination of Ibaka, Adams or Kanter to defend Drummond, it likely won’t end well for OKC.
Ian Mahinmi ($4,500) appears to be a solid value at the center position. He doesn’t play a ton of minutes, but has been effective for the Pacers. He’s averaging 23.8 DraftKings points per game in his L4, which would be 5.2x value this evening. He should see a nice boost thanks to the matchup with Chicago who is dead last at defending centers this season.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis as news and injuries break closer to tip-off. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.