Finally we have our first real case for fading Steph Curry ($10,300) tonight. The MVP has started the season in historic fashion and is going to have a prime matchup with the Nuggets tonight. The problem is, the Warriors are massive 17.5 point favorites. If they are up big, does Curry even play the 4th quarter? Let’s use history as an indicator. Using last year’s game logs (available here), There were 20 games where The Warriors were favored by 12 or more points. In those games, Curry averaged just 43.04 DraftKings points as opposed to 46.75 in all other games. That might not sound like a huge difference, but that’s a 6% decrease in production. With his price tag, Curry is going to need at least 51.5 DraftKings points tonight to reach 5x value. I hate fading the best player in the world, but I am treading lightly.
The boom-or-bust type player that helps you win GPPs could be Kyle Lowry ($7,900) tonight. Lowry is having a ridiculous season, scoring 41.8 DraftKings points per game. He is being heavily used in this offense as he as jacked 13.4 shots per game while still dishing out nearly six assists a night. Lowry is a candidate to explode tonight against ORL who has been shredded by PGs this season, allowing the fourth most points to the position.
Plenty of value to be had in the form of TJ McConnell ($4,000) who has burst onto the scene for the Sixers. He’s a pass-first guard who’s racked up 24 assists in the last two games. He’s battling on the boards, hauling in 16 rebounds in that span and any points he scores are going to be a bonus. He’s returned owners 34.75 and 36.25 DraftKings points in those two games and is earning praise from HC Brett Brown. Expect McConnell to log big minutes against tonight against the Cavs.
I much prefer James Harden ($10,000) over Curry if you need to decide between the two. It’s been a roller-coaster start to the season for Harden, but he’s still going to pour in plenty of points and there’s no reason to panic just yet. A great situation against SAC who’s allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing SGs and there is a massive total (214) for this game. If you look to past history, the Kings has no answer for Harden last season as he averaged 67.9 DraftKings points against SAC in their three meeting last year.
The emergence of Bradley Beal ($6,600) continues. Beal has always logged big minutes for the Wizards, but is scoring at a prolific rate right now. Beal is averaging 25.3 PPG out of the gate. That’s 10 PPG higher than he averaged last season, so the rate might not be sustainable, but I will ride the hot hand while he still has it going. He certainly hasn’t been shy about shooting the rock, firing off 20 shots per game. His upside is very real against BOS who has surrendered the 4th most points to opposing SGs.
Two quick value plays in the same range. Let’s start with Nik Stauskas ($4,100). Speaking of guys who aren’t afraid to shoot the ball, Stauskas fired 14 THREE POINT ATTEMPTS on Wednesday night. That’s not shots, that’s three point attempts. He only hit 3 of them, but his lack of conscious makes for an appealing fantasy option. He’s scored 24 and 28.25 DraftKings points in his L2 which would be plenty of value at his price. The other, more safe option is Marcus Thornton ($4,000). Thornton’s minutes are closely tied to the absence of Terrance Jones, but Jones will miss yet another game tonight. In the three games that Thornton has stepped into a bigger role, he’s averaged 27.2 DraftKings points and has fired 14, 14 and 16 shots. He is a lovely secondary option in this high total contest.
His price is skyrocketing, but it’s not time to get away from Evan Fournier ($5,200) just yet. Fournier is playing MASSIVE minutes for the Magic (over 43 in 3 of 4) and is red-hot right now. Two straight games of 45.5 and 47.25 fantasy points and while his price is rising quick, he still only needs 31.2 DraftKings points for 6x value, which he has hit in three of his last four.
I am giving a good hard look at Julius Randle ($6,400) tonight. Outside of the dud he has last week, Randle has been outstanding, scoring no less than 28 DraftKings points in those three games, while exploding for 57.25 two games ago. He’s logging heavy minutes for the Lakers and this matchup is great. I have no idea who’s going to cover Randle. Both Thad Young and Brook Lopez offer little resistance in the paint and are literally two of the lowest ranked defenders in the league. The Lakers have a lot of mouths to feed, but Randle has been earning his shots every night. A very high upside play tonight.
I am going to wait for confirmation to see if he starts, but Jared Sullinger ($5,300) is rising stock right now. He’s played well and coach Brad Stevens is rewarding him with minutes. Sullinger started Wednesday night and he returned his owners 33.75 with a 9-11-2-2-2 line. You know you’ll always get a ton of energy from Sullinger as he battles for every rebound and loose ball. He’s a sneaky double-double candidate with 6x upside.
So Andre Drummond ($8,900) is pretty good. The big center has scored 45 points and hauled in 49 rebounds in the last two games. Think about that. That’s just insane. He has scored 52+ DraftKings points in three of his four games this season and his price will soon be amongst the league’s elite. With Demarcus Cousins sidelines, Drummond is the clear #1 center option. He will benefit from a nice pace tonight against PHO and while he will battle elite-rebounder Tyson Chandler, Drummond has forty pounds on Chandler. Tyson will have his hands full with Drummond tonight. Roster liberally.
Despite being a liability defensively, Brook Lopez ($6,800) is one of the most reliable scoring centers in the league. He’s averaging 20 PPG this season and is always a double-double threat. The Lakers are soft at almost every position, but especially under the net. They have allowed the most points in the paint this season. Guess where Lopez does his damage:
That’s all folks. Follow me on Twitter for some interesting tid-bits as lineup news breaks. A solid slate of ten games tonight provides plenty of options Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.