We have to talk about Steph Curry ($10,200) right out of the gate. He has lived up to every bit of MVP hype and then some. He’s averaging 64.1 DraftKings points per game this season and has been spectacular. Unfortunately, this is going to be his toughest task by far, this evening. He’s going to battle a tough Memphis team that has bottled him up in the past, holding him under 44 DraftKings points in 2 of 3 meetings last season. The Grizzlies are known for their lock-down defense which has driven this line down to 202. The average line for a GSW game this year has been 214. To see it drop 12 points is very concerning. I will take the risk and fade Curry tonight.
Brandon Knight ($6,600) is leaping off my screen for tonight. A solid start to the season that keeps getting better. Knight has scored 26.5, 35 and 47.75 DraftKings points in the first three games and is causing some serious matchup issues for defenders. He is priced very reasonably at $6,600 and needing 39.6 points to reach the elusive 6x value mark. I think that number is certainly within his range of outcomes against the Clippers in the second highest O/U on the slate.
Speaking of trending up, enter Matthew Dellavedova ($3,200). Delly has a lot of great factors in play for him tonight. First of all, he’s been playing great, averaging 22.7 DraftKings points in the three games this season. I feel that he’s also a very good lock for 25 minutes tonight. He is proving to be running the offense better than starter Mo Williams so he is stealing minutes already. If this game stays close (13 point line), he could be trusted with running the point as the offense is more efficient with him out there. On the flip side, if this gets out of hand, he’s still the backup. He could see extended run in both a close game and a blowout.
Knight’s teammate, Eric Bledsoe ($7,500) has also been ridiculous this season. Coming off a 33-6-3-2-4 performance for 57.75 DraftKings points, Bledsoe is in another great position tonight. This league is all about opportunity and Bledsoe and Knight dominate the opportunity for the Suns. They have launched 93 of the Suns’ 264 FGA this season, good for over 35%. If you throw in Markieff Morris, those guys account over half of the teams scoring opportunities. I have a feeling that the OKC/HOU game will be heavily targeted, and this PHO/LAC game has just as much scoring upside and will be overlooked.
I love LeBron James ($9,700) tonight. He’s the stud that I am probably most excited about rostering. We’ve talked many times that he is a walking triple-double and he’s going to get the excellent matchup with the Sixers tonight who can’t stop a nosebleed. However, many people will stay away from LeBron because of the “blowout factor” and the Cavs being a 13 points favorite. There’s something weird about this, but the Sixers match up with the Cavs really well and have played them tough over the course of the last few seasons. In fact, the Cavs have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven trips to Philadelphia. If the Sixers can keep this close for awhile, LeBron is in-line for a massive night.
There is a lot to love about Kawhi Leonard ($7,700) right now. You already know he’s a defensive monster who can rack up blocks and steals, but he is adding an offensive side to his game that we have never seen before. He’s averaging over 18 FGAs per game which is a full 6 shots higher than his career high of 12.8 FGA per game. I know we are only three games into the season but Leonard is shouldering the load both offensively and defensively for the Spurs. Don’t forget this is the second night of a back-to-back for the Spurs, so if Coach Pop decides to take a few extra minutes off his veterans, it’s going to be Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge who benefit.
Whether you like him or not, Kevin Love ($7,500) is having a massive season. Averaging 19.7 PPG and 11.7 RBG he hasn’t scored less than 38 DraftKings points in any outing thus far. He’s seen a very consistent workload of 14, 15 and 17 shot attempts. Love should be a safe bet for a double-double against the Sixers tonight who rank dead last in points allowed to Power Forwards.
I like the idea of getting some secondary exposure to the OKC/HOU game in GPPs. It should be no surprise that Harden, Westbrook, and Durant will be heavily owned since they are studs and this game has a massive total. I am looking at Serge Ibaka ($6,200) to provide some alternative exposure to this game. Ibaka has been very efficient this season and seems to be a lock for ~10 FGAs a game. His rebounding prowess has him as a double-double threat tonight against Houston, who has been one of the worst rebounding teams thus far this season.
The center position is a little scary tonight. There are a ton of highly volatile players in bad matchups. I am taking a hard look at Karl Anthony Towns ($6,100) who has been extremely impressive in his first two games of the season, scoring 30.5 and 57.5 DraftKings points per game. If the TWolves continue to rely on KAT offensively, then this price is going to skyrocket and I want to buy low. Towns should see plenty of Meyers Leonard tonight, who was man-handled by Tyson Chandler in his last time out. KAT is Tyson Chandler on steroids and has a scoring skill-set that is going to cause Leonard some serious issues.
Not a lot of value has emerged from this slate just yet. Keep an eye on late scratches. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.