How To Make NBA Projections [34:34] | How To Be Contrarian – NBA [13:10]
I hate these words, but I have to fade Russell Westbrook ($12,300) tonight. I love “Bestbrook”, but this matchup with the Jazz is a significant concern. The Thunder have to travel to UTA on the back end of the B2B and play one of the toughest defensive teams in the league. The Jazz have only allowed 92.4 points per game, second best in the league. The next concern is the slow pace the Jazz play at. It’s like they’re playing in quick sand! Again, the second slowest pace in the league will bring down the Thunder and Vegas has this game tagged with a 196 O/U. That is by far the lowest O/U of any OKC game this season (by a full ten points) and it’s 14 points below their average line. Needed over 70 DraftKings points to hit 6x value is a scary thought tonight and too much risk for me to stomach.
I am taking a good look at Tony Parker ($4,900) tonight. Parker has been on a nice stretch of games, averaging 28.3 DraftKings points per game over his last five. He needs 29.4 tonight to reach full 6x value and will receive a nice boost from playing PHO, who has struggled against point guards and should push the pace against the Spurs. I like that Parker’s minutes are predictable as he’s played exactly 32 minutes in each of the last three games. I expect another solid night from Parker again this evening.
There is plenty of mid-tier value at the SG position. Guys like Alec Burks ($5,200), Rodney Hood ($5,000) and Jeremy Lamb ($4,500) are all in the same boat. they are all going to eat minutes and take plenty of shots to stay relevant. Their fantasy production is closely tied to their real points, but can get hot in a moments notice. I prefer the two Jazz players who will see a big boost from playing OKC. They could conceivably seen a significant increase in possessions, which could lead to extra production.
I think Carmelo Anthony ($8,500) is going to make for an interesting contrarian GPP play tonight. He’s coming off a poor fantasy performance with only 20.5 DraftKings points against HOU, but it was really no fault of his own. He hit half of his field goal attempts but only took ten shots. This is a guy who hasn’t averaged less than 18 shots per game in the last nine years. A ten shot game is an extreme outlier. I expect him to get back to his ways of launching the ball every chance he gets tonight against Miami. I expect many owners to avoid Carmelo, but he still has plenty of upside.
You need to take a look at Robert Covington ($4,400). It looks like he’s off his minutes restriction, as he tallied 32 minutes against MIA on Saturday night. He’s averaging nearly one DraftKings point per minute since returning from injury and should be in-line for 30+ minutes tonight. He’s a sharpshooter who’s not afraid to jack the ball, with 31 shot attempts in his last three games and 15 of them coming from downtown. He only needs 26.4 DraftKings points for full value tonight, which is certainly in his range after dropping 35.5 two days ago.
It’s Boogie time! Demarcus Cousins ($10,300) has been out of this world. He’s scored 61+ points in three of his last four and is going it all for the Kings right now. He’s unstoppable underneath the net and is causing havoc for defenses. I am stunned this his price hasn’t moved any higher than this. He gets the ideal matchup against CHA tonight who’s allowed the most points in the league to opposing PFs. This appears to be a dream scenario to roster Boogie.
It’s worth noting that the price on Nerlens Noel ($6,100) is dropping like a rock. A big discount from the $6,900 he was just three games ago. Noel has been under-achieving but certainly not to the point of this type of price reduction. If you throw out the mess of the game he played versus IND, he’s posted 26, 26.25 and 33.5 DraftKings points in his last three. He’s a player with massive upside as he can fill the stat sheet in many ways. The Sixers are definitely going through growing pains, but Nerlens is too cheap today.
I couldn’t be more excited to watch Karl Anthony Towns ($7,200) take on Jahlil Okafor tonight. KAT has been incredibly impressive this season and he might be in line for a massive night. Okafor has been tremendous on the offensive end, but I can’t imagine a way he can slow down KAT on the defensive end. Towns has posted a double-double in six of nine games and is coming off two massive fantasy nights, posting 40.25 and 47.5 DraftKings points. Towns is one of the higher salary players with a realistic chance of hitting 6x value tonight.
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