It’s hard not to love the Wizards tonight, which means John Wall ($9,000) is solidly in play. Wall is nearly averaging a double-double this season with 19.2 PPG and 8.8 ASG and he’s accomplished that feat in three of the six games he’s played this year. He’s a relatively safe option, scoring at least 39.25 DraftKings points in every game this season. What I love about Wall (and the rest of the Wizards) is that he will benefit from this massive 218.5 O/U set by Vegas. That’s a full 8.5 points higher than any line the Wizards have had this year. Expect a significant increase in possessions for the Wiz.
Kyle Lowry ($7,800) has struggled with his shot lately, but I have high hopes he can turn it around tonight. Lowry started the season red-hot, but his shooting has cooled off in the last three games as he’s only 15-46 from the field. As an optimist, I love that he’s still taking a ton of shots for the Raptors (no less than 14 in any of the last four games) and gets a delightful matchup with the Knicks who have given up the 8th most DraftKings points to opposing PGs. The Raptors are back home after a four game road trip, which should bode well for the whole team.
I feel like it could fall apart any minute, but Deron Williams ($5,900) has been incredibly solid this season. He’s averaging 27.5 DraftKings points per game this season with very little variance. Williams earned 30.25 DraftKings points in 30 minutes of action on Saturday night against the Pelicans, who he will face again tonight. This game has the second highest total on the board and the Pelicans have allowed the most points to opposing PGs. It will be hard to avoid D-Will tonight.
After a slow start, we are seeing the Andrew Wiggins ($6,100) we expected this season. Two massive games in a row, scoring 31 and 33 real points while earning his owners 41.25 and 47.25 DraftKings points in that span. Wiggins completely took over late in the game last night versus ATL and willed his team to victory. He’s going to be heavily owned, but he has tremendous upside at this price point and will take on a Charlotte team that has struggled against guards in all shapes and sizes.
I’ll say it until I am blue in the face, but the Knicks need to find more minutes for Langston Galloway ($4,600). He’s the first man off the bench and playing nearly 30 minutes a night, but it’s still not enough. They are wasting minutes on Sasha Vujacic and Jose Calderon when Galloway has been lightyears better than both of those guys. He’s earned 22, 27.75 and 24 DraftKings points in his last three games and would only need 27 points tonight to reach full 6x value. I think this game presents an interesting opportunity for Galloway to see some extra run. If this game stays close, he should see minutes in the upper 20s. If the Knicks get blown out (8 point underdogs), he could see more minutes with the second team. I think he has a floor of 5x value with some upside to 7x.
Do you want to stats or the narrative in order to roster Kevin Durant ($9,700)? Let’s start with the stats. Durant is a freak who’s pouring in points night after night. He’s averaging 30.1 PPG, which is second best in the league. He’s scorching right now, scoring 52.25, 52 and 59.25 DraftKings points in his last three and would need 58.2 DraftKings points to reach full 6x value tonight. This game has a massive total and should be played a torrid pace. The narrative is that he’s returning home to Washington DC, to play in front of 20,000 fans who will soon beg him to sign with the Wizards this offseason. Durant has averaged 30.5 PPG in 14 games versus his hometown team, which is the second highest total he’s posted versus any opponent. This is the marque game on the slate and I expect Durant to have a big night.
Keep a close eye on the status of Bradley Beal. If he doesn’t go, there’s going to be nearly 18 shots up for grabs for the Wizards. I would expect the biggest beneficiary to be Otto Porter ($5,100). Porter already has hit 6x value in four of the six games he’s played this season. He’s a raw scorer, but can fill up the stat sheet in many ways. It would be a great situation for him to shoulder more of the offense in a game with a massive total and a mere 30 DraftKings points for him to reach full value.
I shouldn’t need to say much about Anthony Davis ($10,700). He easily projects as the top PF tonight and is just eating a ton of minutes for the Pelicans. Davis battled the Mavericks on Saturday, earning a 25-6-4-2-1 line and gets them again tonight. The Mavs have given up the 5th most DraftKings points to the PF position and Davis has the ability to go off at any time.
Derrick Favors ($7,100) makes for an interesting play at well. Favors is a walking double-double who’s coming off a massive 16-12 game on Saturday night versus Memphis. Favors has scored at least 31 DraftKings points in every game this season. The Cavs rebounding situation is really interesting. Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love are elite rebounders, but Timofey Mozgov ranks 88th in the league. Favors should be able to avoid TT who plays with the second unit and should receive little resistance in the paint. I don’t particularly love Favors, but I think there’s decent upside here.
Which Laker is going to be able to stop Hassan Whiteside ($7,600) tonight? The likely answer, is no one. Whiteside has earned or threatened a double-double in every game this season and has blocked 18 (!!) shots in the last four games. The Lakers are getting dominated in the paint, allowing the second most points across the league in that area. They are also allowing the 6th most rebounds to opponents and Whiteside is one of the best rebounders in the league. Other than getting him in foul trouble, it’s going to be very difficult to slow down Whiteside tonight.
The theme of Wizards continues as Marcin Gortat ($5,300) appears to be a nice value option at center tonight. Gortat’s minutes are incredibly consistent earning exactly 26 or 28 minutes in each of the last five games. His last three games have earned lines of 10-10, 10-8 and 10-8. He’s certainly in a situation to reach a double-double tonight with the added possessions.
Not a ton of value on this slate unless something opens up late. Follow me on Twitter for more information as news and injuries break. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.