Welcome to Week 11 of the NFL! We are finally starting to see some usable sample sizes and learning how coaches will be using their players in high leverage situations. Also the BYE weeks add an extra dynamic when it comes to roster construction and recency biases.
Despite the struggles of the Packers, Aaron Rodgers is scorching hot. He’s scored 93.56 DraftKings points in the last three weeks, which is by far the most by any QB in the league. He’s scored 14 more DraftKings points than the next closest QB which is the same gap from QB2 to QB8 (Jameis Winston). Now he’s a slight underdog in one of the highest total games on the slate. You can sell the Packers as a team, but buy Rodgers as a QB1.
After a few sour weeks in the middle of the season, Stefon Diggs is back to his usual self. He’s piled on 76.2 DraftKings points in the last three weeks, which is the most for any WR in the league. It’s all about volume for Diggs who has earned 13, 14 and 15 targets in the last three weeks. He’s scored 20+ DraftKings points in five of his seven games this season and is priced as WR13 this week on DraftKings.
Listen To Vegas
We’ve talked about this trend before, but it’s back again this week. Over the last two seasons, LeGarrette Blount has been really good in games where the Patriots are heavy favorites. For these purposes, here are all his games since the start of 2015, where the Pats were more than a touchdown favorite. Thanks to the NFL Game Logs, I’ve compiled this:
He’s averaging 18.2 carries and over a touchdown per contest, good for 17.37 DraftKings points. As you can see, in those 10 games, he’s scored 21+ DraftKings points in half. New England is a big 14 point favorite in this game against the Niners who also allow 30% more fantasy points to opposing RBs than the league average.
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Andrew Luck, in high total games, has been a little hit or miss. Over the last two seasons, he’s played in six game with at least a 50 point over/under. He’s averaging 23.97 DraftKings points but he’s posted games of 14.7, 14.2 and 19.4 while flashing the upside with 29, 31 and 35.5 DraftKings points. Literally nothing in-between 19.4 and 29. That volatility has also been a staple in Luck’s 2016 campaign. If you’re going to roster Luck this week, consider him for GPPs:
Russell Shepard has missed the last two games for Tampa Bay due to a hip injury, but he’s been a full participant at practice this week, indicating that he’s a go for Week 11. Shepard was starting to carve out a role for himself in the offense before being injured. In the two games before his injury, he caught 7 of 9 targets for two TDs. That has accounted for 18.7 and 10.4 DraftKings points. The Bucs are very thin at all the pass-catching positions, so I think Shepard could see a decent workload for his price tag. The Bucs are a 7.5 point underdog so expect a lot of passes from Jameis Winston.
This is a deep one, but how about Ladarius Green? The Steelers tight end played his first game of the season last week against the Cowboys. Despite only playing 12 snaps, he saw 4 targets, caught three balls and turned in 30 yards. Obviously not eye-popping numbers, but Green has been practicing fully and with the first team all week. It’s reasonable to think he sees significantly more snaps this week on a high powered offense in the best matchup you could ask for. The Browns allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Oh yeah, and Green is min-priced on DraftKings.
The Go-To Defense
You better believe I will be targeting Jared Goff in his first career start this week. Rookie QBs in general are usually prone to more turnovers and bad decisions. Goff is now going to lace them up for one of the worst offenses in the league against the Dolphins. Miami has turned in 17 and 13 DraftKings points in the last two weeks, thanks to six total INTs and six total sacks.
Kind of a weird situation with Bears RB Jordan Howard denying any injury last week to Tampa Bay. Despite that claim, he showed up on the injury report this week, but has been removed from that list as of Wednesday. Finally, now that he’s “fully healthy”, Howard has admitted that he suffered an Achilles injury in the Week 10 loss to Tampa Bay. Despite all the noise, Howard is no longer on the injury report and should be considered a full-go against the Giants.
We are guessing a lot when it comes to the Seahawks running back situation, but it looks like C.J. Prosise will be the “main man” for at least one more week. Seattle cut Christine Michael and they already stated that Thomas Rawls will be “eased back into action”. I expect Rawls to take away some of the workload, including the goal-line carries, but Prosise should still be a nice PPR option. He hauled in seven catches for 87 yards in addition to his 17 carries in Week 10. Not a great matchup with Philly, but his $4,200 price tag on DraftKings is too good to overlook.
Monday Night Hero
I must be a glutton for punishment, but how about Deandre Hopkins? What a brutal year for Hopkins who is only averaging 12.7 DraftKings PPG this season and hasn’t broken double-digits in any of his last three. So what’s the good news? Well, his targets. Hopkins has still seen 47 targets over the last four weeks. Next, his price tag is only $6,500 which is the lowest it has been all season. Finally, the matchup with Oakland is great! The Raiders allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing WRs and this game has a healthy 46.5 over/under. Whether they can connect or not is a different dilemma, but I expect Brock Osweiler to continue to target Hopkins very heavily.
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