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Note: Please welcome Jason Ferrie to the DFSOD team. We are happy to have him and he has provided the Cheat Sheet for this week. Jason is an accomplished, high-level thinker when it comes to DFS and his work can be found across the internet. If you’d like to reach out to Jason directly, give him a follow on Twitter. As usual, these write-ups include about recent performance, matchup, vegas line, price and so much more. If you like (or dislike) this format, I want you to let me know! You can tweet me or send me a note here.
Welcome to the Week 14 Cheat Sheet! This is a feature that will be released every Friday throughout the season.
If you are interested in reading last week’s Cheat Sheet, here it is for Week 13.
Russell Wilson ($6,300) @ Baltimore (Sea -10; O/U 42)—We are heading into Week 14, and if you watched the last few weeks, you’d expect Wilson to be the chalk play this week. Due to his recent performances, Wilson will have earned the right to be the highest owned quarterback. At $6,300 on DraftKings—Wilson needs just 15.31 points to pay off. He will be facing the Ravens, who have allowed 19.22 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. According to Football Outsiders DVOA metric, the Ravens rank 26th against the pass this season and get the hottest quarterback in the game this week. With back-to-back games of 30-plus DK points, Wilson will be a great play and very popular. I prefer Wilson in cash because of the ownership, but have no issues with using him in tournaments.
Jameis Winston ($5,500) vs. New Orleans (TB -3.5; O/U 51)—I hope this isn’t a news flash to anyone, but the Saints defense stinks. So far this season, the Saints have allowed 25.44 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks—which is the worst in football. According to Fantasy Labs, the Saints have allowed 8.7-points above expectation to quarterbacks, which is also the worst in football. Oh, you want more? Well, how about the Saints surrendering a league worst 35 passing touchdowns. Winston has met and exceeded his implied salary each week this season, and he should have little trouble doing so this weekend. The total is high and Winston’s price is low, which means he is a great play in all formats.
Andy Dalton ($6,600) vs. Pittsburgh (Cin -2.5; O/U 50)—This game is huge for both teams. The Bengals want to control their destiny, and the Steelers are fighting for a playoff spot. To the surprise of many, Dalton has been one of the best quarterbacks in football this season. In fantasy, he has been great—outperforming his implied salary in seven of his last nine contests. With a match-up against the Steelers and their 14th ranked pass defense, Dalton has a decent match-up. However, when looking at the specific match-ups, it can be seen that Dalton’s skill players—like A.J Green and Tyler Eifert have the advantage, per Pro Football Focus ratings. The Steelers are allowing 4.9 points above expectation this season to quarterbacks. I think Big Ben will be higher owned, so Dalton is a great play in a game where he is favored with a high total.
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800) @ Cincinnati (Cin -2.5; O/U 50)—As stated above with Dalton, this is a great spot. Specifically for Roethlisberger, this spot got a little better today. Reports say that Adam “Pacman” Jones, who has been the Bengals top cornerback, will miss the game this Sunday. That gives a bump to all Pittsburgh skill players, which also bumps Ben, too. The Bengals have been a pretty good defense all season, and have defended the pass well. The issue for Cincinnati comes with the injury to Jones, leaving Dre Kirkpatrick as their top corner. For those who don’t know, Kirkpatrick is ranked as the third-worst cornerback in football, per Pro Football Focus. In his last five games, Big Ben has average 43 pass attempts per game, which means that there should be plenty of opportunities to produce. If you don’t like Dalton, you can go Ben—but I think he will the higher owned of the two.
Tyrod Taylor ($5,400) @ Philadelphia (Phi -1; O/U 47)—The Bills travel to Philadelphia this week in the battle of LeSean McCoy. In each of his past two weeks, Taylor has put up over 27 DraftKings points—which at his low salary means you’re getting a huge bargain. In each of those two weeks, Taylor outperformed his implied salary by at least 14 DK points. This weekend, he will face an Eagles defense that has allowed 28 passing touchdowns this season. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Eagles are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks at 21.8.
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That’s all folks! Be sure to follow us on Twitter for more player analysis as news and injuries break closer to kickoff! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.