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Note: Please welcome Jason Ferrie to the DFSOD team. We are happy to have him and he has provided the Cheat Sheet for this week. Jason is an accomplished, high-level thinker when it comes to DFS and his work can be found across the internet. If you’d like to reach out to Jason directly, give him a follow on Twitter. As usual, these write-ups include about recent performance, matchup, vegas line, price and so much more. If you like (or dislike) this format, I want you to let me know! You can tweet me or send me a note here.
Welcome to the Week 15 Cheat Sheet! This is a feature that will be released every Friday throughout the season.
If you are interested in reading last week’s Cheat Sheet, here it is for Week 14.
Aaron Rodgers ($7,400) @ Oakland (GB -3; O/U 47.5)—To be honest, I don’t think I had an Aaron Rodgers lineup this season, which is lucky for me since he hasn’t put up his usual numbers. However, I believe that can change this weekend. Rodgers will be heading on the road to meet an Oakland team that allows the fifth-most passing yard per game (285.5). While Oakland has somewhat limited fantasy production to quarterbacks, this is a great spot for Rodgers. His position players appear to have the advantage if we use Pro Football Focus ratings, which I’ve found to be useful. There is a good chance that the Raiders allow 20-or-more points for the 11th time in a game this week. If we use DFSReport.com, we can see that Rodgers was owned in just 1.9-percent of lineups in the two dollar NFL Snap contest—which has 114,943 entries. I’d say it is a good time to look at Rodgers.
Matt Ryan ($5,700) @ Jacksonville (Jax -3; O/U 49)—Call me crazy, but I love this spot for Ryan. For starters, we all know how brutal he has been this season. Ryan, similar to Rodgers, has been a guy that I’ve limited my exposure to, but that’ll change this weekend. In his last three contests, Ryan has significantly underperformed, which will drive down the ownership. On top of that, Ryan has finally dropped below $6,000. At that price, and throwing the ball 40 times a game, I don’t see how Ryan misses his implied point total of 13.85 this weekend. The Jaguars have surrendered 20-or-more points ten times this season, and I don’t see a reason that it won’t happen again here.
Carson Palmer ($7,000) @ Philadelphia (Ari -3; O/U 51)–The Arizona Cardinals take their smoking hot offense into Philadelphia to meet the Eagles, who have pulled off back-to-back victories over AFC East opponents. It’s no secret that the Eagles defense has struggled at times this season. The Eagles have actually surrendered the second-most touchdowns (29) through the air this season. It should come as no surprise that they’ve also been the second-most generous team to opposing quarterbacks—allowing over 21 fantasy points per game. Somehow Palmer is still priced at just $7,000 in an elite match-up. The total is very high, and Palmer’s skill players are better than the Eagles defenders. I like Palmer in all formats.
Matthew Stafford ($6,100) @ New Orleans (NO -3; O/U 51)—Welcome to the underperformance bowl, folks. Seriously, how underwhelming have these two teams been this season? I know, the Saints have actually been pretty great to DFS players. Thanks, Rob Ryan. It was quite the surprise that New Orleans shut down Winston and Tampa Bay last weekend, but I’m not so sure that trend continues this weekend. For the season, the Saints have allowed 9.6 fantasy points above implied salary to opposing quarterbacks—which is the worst in football. In a game with a total this high, it is hard to turn away. The Saints also lead in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and passing touchdowns surrendered. Stafford is risky, which makes him more of a tournament play, but this is the best match-up he will see this season.
Russell Wilson ($7,000) @ Cleveland (Sea -15; O/U 43)—It appears that the DFS community will be heading back to the well this weekend for some more Russell Wilson. I’m not kidding, either. In the $2 NFL Slam, Wilson was owned in 23.7-percent. The next highest quarterback is Blake Bortles at 9.4-percent. That move Wilson closer to cash for me, but hey, it’s your lineup, not mine. If you do play Wilson, it should pay off, as he faces a defense allowing 4.7 points above implied salary to opponents, per Fantasy Labs. Along with that, Cleveland has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. I do have some concerns as to whether or not the game flow will favor Wilson here. The 15-point spread screams blowout, and even with Wilson throwing when leading in the last several games, it worries me some. He should meet his salary implied points of 17, but I worry about the blowout here.
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