Of the “elite” level WRs, It appears that Julio Jones ($8,900) is in the best situation this week. It’s chalky, but that doesn’t make it wrong. Julio was the leading scorer last week across all positions with 38.1 DK points. He is likely to be in another shootout this week as the Falcons take on the Giants in a game that Vegas projects to be the second highest scoring game of the week. That tier of WRs has some concern. Calvin Johnson doesn’t look nearly as explosive as he once did, Dez Bryant is of course out for a few weeks and Odell Beckham laid an egg in his prime Week 1 matchup. Jones is the WR with the most upside this week and I am not sure it’s particularly close.
The pricing on Jordan Matthews ($7,100) seems a little off. Most likely because this was the Monday Night game and I believe Week 2 pricing was already set. That is something we can take advantage of here. Matthews caught 10 balls for 102 yards and scored 23.2 DK points on MNF. He cost $7,200 last week. Now he’s at home, in a game with an even higher total, with the Eagles projected to score even more points and he’s $100 less. Matthews was the 5th highest scoring WR last week and it’s clear that QB Sam Bradford loves looking his way. I’ll be rostering Matthews liberally.
Pro Football Focus projects that Steve Smith ($6,000) will have the best WR vs. CB matchup of the week, going up against Oakland’s TJ Carrie. I am not ready to hop off the Smith bandwagon after one bad game against a good defense. Smith will make for an under-owned GPP play since many owners will avoid him. I am still a believer that Smith can be productive early in the season and there’s no better time to show that than this week against Oakland who was scorched by Andy Dalton and the Bengals last week.
I probably sound like a broken record but I am not ready to move off of Vincent Jackson ($5,500) just yet. I am optimistic that Jameis Winston has better days ahead because…how can it get worse? There is certainly some promise for V-Jax. This game has the fourth highest total set by Las Vegas with the Bucs being a big 9.5 point underdog to the Saints. That would indicate that the Bucs are going to have to throw a ton this week. Vincent Jackson saw 5 (!!) redzone targets last week which was the most in the league. Unfortunately, he only only “caught” one for a TD that was called back on a penalty. However, the fact that Winston looked his way that many times is a good sign. Depending on Mike Evans’ status in this game, Jackson’s value could increase even more.
Stevie Johnson ($4,200) will certainly be a favorite value play this week. Johnson converted one all six of his targets for 82 yards and a TD. It was nice to see that he was used evenly throughout the game with at least one catch in every quarter and scored his touchdown inside the redzone. That’s all promising signs for a San Diego Chargers team that throws the ball a ton.
One of my personal favorite value plays is Brandon Coleman ($3,300). His price tag is so small, I won’t be able to stay away from him. I was very impressed with Coleman’s first NFL start. If you’re unfamiliar, he is a 6’6″ 225lb rookie who will probably grow to be Drew Brees favorite redzone target after the departure of Jimmy Graham. Coleman saw 7 targets which was only one less than highly touted Brandin Cooks. We’ve talked about how the Saints should dismantle the Bucs in this high total game and hopefully Coleman will be a significant part of that. If you need anymore convincing, check out this video and see his nose for the endzone:
What a list of WR’s this week, I can’t wait for Sunday. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.