Remember: This is the LAST CHANCE to be eligible for the Custom DraftKings Jersey Giveaway. I am pulling the winner at kickoff of the 1:00pm EST games on Sunday! Become eligible by becoming a Pro Member.
A few new tools for our Pro Members include:
- NFL Player Points Database – Every point scored by every player in every game!
- Points allowed by position – Exactly what it sounds like!
- Snap Counts for each position – Running Backs, Wide Receivers, Tight Ends
- Sign up for a 7-Day Trial of Pro features.
Remember: All positional breakdowns are open to the PUBLIC. Here they are:
Welcome to Week 4 of the NFL! The “Cheat Sheet” is a feature that will be released every Friday throughout the season. It will be a fluid article (so check back often!) that will encompass everything you need to set your lineups for the NFL. We will go game by game, discussing the most relevant players on each team.
If you are interested in reading last week’s Cheat Sheet, here it is for Week 3.
DraftKings strategy and pricing is front of mind, but these can also help you set your season long lineups. I love action, so we will go in order of Vegas point totals, highest to lowest! Let’s do it!
BYEs: New England & Tennessee
Philadelphia (-3) @ Washington o/u 47.5
This is an interesting game. It has the highest total on the slate, but it doesn’t feel like there are many fantasy relevant players. You cannot trust Sam Bradford or any of the Eagles RBs, assuming that DeMarco Murray suits up. The return of Murray would devalue all the RBs agasint WAS who has surrendered the second fewest DraftKings points to opposing RBs.
It’s nice to see the price on Jordan Matthews ($6,600) fall and he’s probably the only Eagle that I’d be comfortable rostering. He is by far Bradford’s favorite target, garnering 31 targets compared to 12 for the next closest WR (Agholor). He feels like a GPP play, because he will have some massive games in the future but with very little consistency.
If you think the Eagles RB situation is murky, look at the Redskins RB situation. They now have a THREE headed monster that makes them all untouchable. Matt Jones ($4,500) led the carries with 11 to Alfred Morris’ ($4,100) six last week. However, it was Chris Thompson ($3,500) who was the fantasy producer with 8 catches for 57 yards and a TD in Week 3. It looks like the Redskins are going to use all three moving forward in different scenarios. Until this situation clears up, I am not touching any of them.
The price on Jordan Reed ($4,500) is climbing, but it’s still not high enough. Reed is clearly one of QB Kirk Cousins’ favorite targets as the big TE has 27 looks in the first three weeks. Reed has not returned his owners less than 4x value this season despite only catching one TD. He is also tied for the team lead in redzone targets so I certainly expect that TD number to increase significantly.
Green Bay (-8.5) @ San Francisco o/u 47.5
Broken record time… Aaron Rodgers ($7,900) is the best QB in the league until I tell you otherwise. He diced up Kansas City on National TV, then got a small discount since the pricing was released before that game had even started. He will be extremely highly owned against SF in Week 4 but he will remain one of my favorite cash game plays.
I think Eddie Lacy ($6,900) is going to make for one of the better GPP plays of the week. He was out-touched 18 to 13 by teammate James Starks in Week 3, but I think that was mostly due to gameflow as opposed to anything else. Lacy was banged up heading into this game and they didn’t need to risk him out on the field when they jumped out to a big lead. Many owners might shy away from Lacy this week, but he should have time to get healthy. He ran effectively and scored 11.7 DraftKings points on only 13 touches. He will get the dream matchup of San Francisco who’s allowed the 3rd most DraftKings points to opposing RBs, including 31 in back to back weeks.
What a beautiful thing to see Randall Cobb ($7,400) priced exactly where he was last week. I continue to say this, Randall Cobb is getting healthier every week and it feels like he is going to continue to go nuts. He destroyed the Chiefs secondary for 35.3 DraftKings points (7-91-3). He’s been playing hurt and still putting up big numbers for the Packers. I think the Niners might be the league’s worst team, and they are surrendering a massive 40.93 DraftKings points per game to opposing WRs this season including 57 and 48 in the L2. You can certainly believe that Aaron Rodgers should have no trouble picking this defense apart.
James Jones ($5,300) refuses to stop being awesome. Now averaging 20.3 DraftKings points per game after a seven catch, 139 yard and 1 TD performance on Monday Night. If Davante Adams misses significant time, that means even more opportunity for Jones who has been the 5th best value WR this season, averaging 4.44x his salary.
Carlos Hyde ($5,100) is a scary proposition. He’s been a great asset for the 49ers, the 7th best RB in the league in terms of PPO (points per opportunity), but I am worried about that opportunity. I believe the Niners will be trailing quite a bit this season (especially in this game against the Packers) where they might have to get away from the run. It’s a shame because GB has surrendered the second most DraftKings points to opposing RBs. So if you believe that the Niners can keep this close for three quarters, Hyde should be a solid GPP play.
It’s probably time to buy a little stock in Anquan Boldin ($4,800). His price has plummeted from $6,200 to $5,700 to $5,400 and now finally down to $4,800. Unfortunately, Boldin is completely dependent on Colin Kaepernick who was miserable last week, throwing four interceptions. It’s still a good gamescript for Boldin though, assuming the Packers lead this one and the Niners have to play catch-up through the air. Boldin is Kaepernick’s favorite target, garnering 19 targets over the first three weeks. If there’s ever going to be a time for a big Anquan Boldin game, it’s probably this week!
Indianapolis (-9) vs Jacksonville o/u 47
It hasn’t been pretty for Andrew Luck ($7,800) to start the season. He’s ranked 20th amongst all QBs in DraftKings scoring. You can look at that a few different ways. You can say that he’s ranked 20th and avoid him or be optimistic that he’s still ranked 20th despite playing very poorly and throwing a ridiculous 7 INTs. I certainly think there’s better days ahead for Luck and if he’s going to get right in a big way, you’d think it would be think week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is surrendering 22.09 DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs this season.
Frank Gore ($4,700) looked great last week against TEN, averaging 6.1 YPC and finding the endzone twice. Finally, the Colts offense could move the ball and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Gore’s effectiveness opened up the rest of the offense. I expect the Colts to continue to rely on Gore and the gamescript for this game would indicate the Colts running the ball a few ticks more than usual. It’s going to be hard to find a RB with multi-TD upside and in a great gamescript for only $4,700. Gore fits that bill this week.
CHOO CHOO!! All aborard the Donte Moncreif ($5,000) train. Let’s face it, the Colts have not been good. Despite their struggles, Moncreif is averaging 19.3 DraftKings points per game which ranks him 16th amongst all WRs. I feel like there is plenty of room for improvement if this offense can get back to the prolific rate we saw last season. I am not too concerned about Moncrief losing targets to Andre Johnson. Johnson only saw 1 target last week from Luck while Moncrief has now seen 25 on the season, only one less than TY Hilton. If any team can help get the Colts trending in the right direction, it has to be the Jaguars!
I am back on Allen Robinson ($5,500) this week. He had a somewhat disappointing 4 catches and 68 yards last week, but I was encouraged by his nine targets. He is still the top option for QB Blake Bortles and, as discussed, the Jaguars should have to throw quite a bit this season and this week. If you can pencil Robinson in for double digit targets each week, he should have a very production fantasy season.
Buffalo (-5.5) vs NY Giants o/u 47
The 5th ranked DraftKings QB is getting no love from the pricing algorithm. I am talking about Tyrod Taylor ($5,800) who is averaging 23.1 DraftKings points per game. He’s been spectacular this season and continues to impress week-in and week-out. Taylor has completed no less than 72% of his passes in any game this season and has tacked on 96 yards and a TD on the ground. It’s logical to think that he hasn’t seen his best matchup yet, but that will change on Sunday. The Bills will take on the porous Giants defense that is surrendering the 4th most DraftKings points to opposing QBs.
Karlos Williams ($3,400) is already having a solid fantasy season, but could see a big boost in Week 4. Williams is averaging 14.4 DraftKings points per game despite only 24 total carries on the season. There are reports that LeSean McCoy will sit out in Week 4. If he does, Williams becomes an outstanding play as he will see the bulk of the workload against a Giants defense that has allowed the 4th most DraftKings points to opposing RBs.
For some real deep value, take a look at Charles Clay ($3,300). Clay is an impressive physical specimen. When he was with the Dolphins last year, they lined him up all over the field including in the backfield and he can hold his own in any of those positions. He’s had a bit of an emergence with the Bills this season, averaging 12.8 DraftKings points per game. Clay is second on the Bills in targets with 17 and has found the endzone in two straight games. The Giants have surrendered the third most DraftKings points to TEs and if Sammy Watkins misses this game, there should be a handful more targets up for grabs.
Buffalo has now surrendered the third most DraftKings points per game to opposing WRs this season (43.63) including 49.6 to NE and 48.9 to MIA in the last two weeks. They are going to have their hands full agains with Odell Beckham Jr ($9,100) who now has back-to-back 7 catch games and tacked on a TD in both. ODB is a target monster, garnering 30.28% of his teams looks. Throw in a few extra days to prepare after playing last Thursday and ODB is one of my top plays across the board. Roster him liberally.
Become a Pro Member and get access to all our articles and tools.
View Pro Benefits