This feels like a week to either pay up for a top QB or find value near the bottom of the list. There are few quarterbacks in the middle tiers that get me excited. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
Tom Brady ($7,800) is my clear #1 QB. With Rodgers in a difficult matchup with STL, I think his ceiling is capped a bit. Not so much for Brady who has been ridiculous this season averaging 28.5 DraftKings points per game and New England is second in the league in passing attempts per game with 44.3. Brady is in a great matchup versus Dallas who have given up 23 and 25 DraftKings points to opposing QBs in the L2 weeks. Brady also gets an extra week to prepare for this one, so there is little reason to believe he won’t have an outstanding game.
I am not sure how sneaky he will be after a nice Sunday Night Football performance, but Drew Brees ($7,200) is going to be on my radar this week. I was pleasantly surprised with how he looked coming off an injury and completed a ridiculous 33 of 41 passes. He is going to get the Eagles who have been killed by passing yards this season, surrendering 279 yards per game (9th worst in the league). Brees is probably the best QB that they have faced to this point (Ryan, Romo/Weeden, Fitzpatrick, Cousins) and this game has the second highest total on the board.
Now for some value with Marcus Mariota ($6,000). Mariota is averaging 22.3 DraftKings points per game this season and is coming off a BYE week. BYE week’s are massive for rookie QBs to continue to develop and prepare for his next opponent. Mariota will be at home, facing off with the Bills who have surrendered the 3rd most DraftKings points to opposing QBs. Sign me up!
Something about Joe Flacco ($5,800) that has me interested in him as a GPP play this week. Flacco is incredibly inconsistent, but when he has a good day, he has a GREAT day. He has scored 2.68 and 9.56 points this year, but has also lit of the scoreboard for 25.56 and 24.48. If we are going to see “Good Joe”, you’d expect it to be this week. He’s getting extra time to prepare for the Browns after playing on Thursday Night and Flacco has always been a better QB at home. Flacco has a 91.5 QB rating in Baltimore compared to 78.6 on the road. Cleveland is now surrendering 21.23 DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs this season and they have gotten worse in every game this season (14.06, 18.18, 23.46, and 29.22). He is boom or bust but this is the cheapest he’s been all season and won’t need a massive day to pay for himself.
I think Jay Cutler ($5,300) is worth a look this week. In the two games that he has started and finished, he scored 15.1 and 18.24 DraftKings points. That would be a solid 3x value at his current price. Chicago is a massive underdog in this game (9.5 points) which is a great sign for Cutler. He may be required to throw the ball 40 times to try and keep pace. I would like Cutler even more if Alshon Jeffery suits up, adding to his arsenal of receivers. The matchup with KC is sublime, as no team has surrendered more DraftKings points to opposing QBs.