This feels like a week to take a value option at QB. All the top tier QBs are in very tough matchups. Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.
I still cannot grasp why Matt Ryan ($7,100) is priced so highly. I understand it’s a good matchup, but he’s had good matchups for weeks and is only averaging 13.71 DraftKings points per game this month. He’s priced as QB4 this week despite being QB25 on the season! The Falcons are relying heavily on their running game via Davonta Freeman which is hurting Ryan’s value.
I’m willing to take any risk involving Ben Roethlisberger ($6,700) this week. He has been solid in the 2.5 games he played this season. He was one of the most efficient QBs in terms of Points Per Dropback and has one of the deepest aDOT’s in the league. He averaged 27.85 DraftKings points per game in the two games he started (and finished) this season. It’s obviously a small sample size, but would be good for the 2nd best average in the league behind only Tom Brady. Keep an eye on his status, but I plan on firing him up if he plays.
The hype train on Philip Rivers ($6,600) continues and it should! Rivers is on pace to break the single season passing yards record, which is almost unfathomable to think about. Rivers has four straight games of 24+ DraftKings points including 30.44 and 31.12 in his last two. The Chargers are certainly not afraid to throw the ball as Rivers has attempted 48, 65 and 58 passes in the last three outings. He’s now stepping into the best matchup in the league as the Ravens have allowed more yards to opposing QBs than any team in the league.
It’s reasonable to consider Matthew Stafford ($5,800) in GPPs this week. He’s way too volatile to be a cash game play, but his upside is well-known. A 37 point performance two weeks ago that included 400 passing yards and 4 TDs. The matchup with KC is sublime, as the Chiefs have been picked on by Quarterbacks every week this season. There should be plenty of opportunity as the Lions average 43 pass attempts per game, the 3rd highest total in the league.
Some nice value in Ryan Tannehill ($5,700) this week. I certainly don’t expect 4 TD passes on only 19 attempts like he did last week, but Tannehill has been solid all season. He’s averaging 19.8 DraftKings points per game and has provided his owners at least 3x value in four out of six games this season. This is the highest total on the board and Miami is a 8 point underdog. Expect them to have to throw the ball a ton to stay in this game. That’s been the recipe for many QBs against NE this season, which is why the Patriots have surrendered the 4th most DraftKings points to opposing QBs, despite their undefeated record.