If you’re new, I am documenting my own “One and Done” picks this season. After a hot start with Matsuyama at the TOC, we haven’t found too much success. That will change this week!
SBS Tournament of Champions – Hideki Matsuyama ($712,000)
Sony Open – Pat Perez ($12,000)
CareerBuilder Challenge – Bill Haas ($84,100)
Farmers Insurance Open – Martin Laird ($12,550)
Waste Management Open – Jon Rahm ($90,953)
Total: $911,850 (11th of 23)
I love all the studs this week, which include Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson and Jordan Spieth. I’d be thrilled to roster them this week, but I can’t afford to burn one of these guys this early in the season. I’ll be happy to hang onto them to consideration in the Majors, WGC events or the playoffs when the prize pools get even larger.
We still have a few really compelling options, with one of the most intriguing being Phil Mickelson. There’s not much to say here, no worse than T21 in any start this season and is coming off top Top 15s in last two. Phil was feeling it on the weekend, playing the first 27 holes of the weekend at ten under. Unfortunately he limped to the finish line, giving four shots back on the final nine. Despite the struggles, Phil must be licking his chops to play Pebble Beach where he is a four time winner and is coming off a solo second last year. In terms of strategy, I don’t know a better place to burn Phil if I’m not going to play him later in the season. It also helps that 5 of 22 in my pool won’t be able to use Phil this week.
If you want a true contrarian option, consider J.J. Spaun who is smoking hot right now. Back-to-back top 10s in the last two weeks and he stats are pretty incredible. He’s plenty long off the tee, averaging 310 yards last week (11th best) and has been top 20 in greens hit in both weeks. Definitely high risk here, maybe a little too much for me. I’ll load up in DFS GPPs, but I’m not sure he’s the guy for me in one and done.
J.B. Holmes is trending in the right direction, improving on each of his three starts this year. The latest was a T24 last week at the Waste Management where he was the second longest off the tee and was ninth in putting. Holmes is a killer on Poa Annua greens. Only Dustin Johnson has more birdies per round on Poa Annua in 10+ rounds. Holmes has a solid record at Pebble Beach, making 9/10 cuts, with a T11 and T10 in the last two seasons.
I am a glutton for punishment, so I am rostering Phil Mickelson. I cannot resist a hungry Phil who is playing well, at the course he probably has the best history.
Other considerations: Brandt Snedeker & Patrick Reed
Pebble Beach Pro-Am Research Spreadsheet
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