Tourney History, Performance, Odds, Etc (At Bottom)
The PGA Tour stays in Texas this week as golfers tackle the Dean & Deluca Invitational from Colonial Country Club in Ft. Worth. As the name of the tournament suggests, this is an invite only tournament with a smaller field of just around 125 golfers. With the cut still being Top 70 and ties only around 50 golfers will be cut rather than the normal 80 or so. For DFS purposes, this means you can be slightly more risky with your picks in cash games since less golfers are going to be cut. I don’t advise using a stars and scrubs approach for cash games in tournaments with a cut but if there is any week to do it, it would be this one. For GPPs nothing really changes. You have to still get 6/6 through while having the winner and the other five guys placing high.
The course seems to favor experienced golfers. Since 2001, the winners of this event have averaged 8 appearances at Colonial before their victory. Only 8 golfers in 67 years have gotten their maiden victory here. Last year Chris Kirk (27 years old) was the youngest winner at Colonial since 2001. Every other golfer that won here between 2002 and 2014 was above 31 years old.
Weather also plays a big factor as it does in most Texas courses. Wind and rain are prevalent and looking at the forecast this week, it looks like Thursday and Friday are going to be very windy with rain likely. Make sure you check the weather report Wednesday night to see if there will be any advantages in specific tee time waves. Now onto the course.
Colonial Country Club is a 7,200 yard par 70 course with four par 3s and only two par 5s. Off the tee golfers will see tight tree lined fairways with thick rough and bunkers in play on most tee shots. The fairways are difficult to hit as only around 57% of all tee shots reach the short grass. This is definitely a thinking mans course as it favors precision more than length. There are many doglegs making it much harder to just bomb drives out there. Golfers will need to hit to certain spots to have a clear approach to the green. This leads to many golfers leaving their driver in the bag on a lot of tee shots. On approach shots golfers will see small greens with a little undulation. Bunkers surround most greens and water is in play on at least four approach shots on the course. The greens use bentgrass and if the weather holds up they should play firm and fairly quick with a stimpmeter rating of around 12.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained Putting (SG:P) which is a key stat every week.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
SG:T2G is an important stat every week but when you look at the trends over the last ten years at Colonial it seems like it is more important here than on other courses. 28/38 golfers that finished 3rd or better the last ten years were ranked inside the Top 76 in this stat for the specific year they finished Top 3. Taking a peak at Strokes Gained on Approach Shots might be a good idea as well.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
Anytime there are twelve par 4s on a course, P4 should be looked at. This week is no different. 27/38 golfers that finished in the Top 3 the last ten years were ranked inside the Top 79 in this stat for the respective year they finished Top 3.
Good Drive % (GD%):
GD% takes into account driving accuracy and greens in regulation. With the hard to hit fairways and small greens, both of these stats will be important this week.
With the tight fairways, thick rough, and small greens, no golfer is going to be perfect in greens in regulation this week. Greens will be missed and how well a golfer gets it up and down could decide the outcome on Sunday.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Matt Kuchar ($11,000):
Kuchar has been a fixture in my last few picks articles and it’s for good reason. He is playing some of his best golf in years recently. He has three Top 10s in his last four events including back to back 3rd place finishes at The Players and The Byron Nelson. He has experience at Colonial, playing here eight times, making seven cuts, and accruing three Top 16s. He was the runner up here in 2013 so you know that he can contend at this course. Stat wise he is solid. He’s 14th in SG:T2G, 15th in P4, 35th in GD%, 13th in Scr, and 33rd in SG:P. He is my #1 ranked golfer overall and I’ll be using him in all formats. (GPP and cash)
Charley Hoffman ($10,400):
Hoffman’s stats are just ok for the course but his current form and course history is too hard to ignore. In his last four made cuts on Tour he has finished inside the Top 15 in all of them and had a victory a few weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open. This is his eighth appearance at Colonial and he has never missed a cut with three Top 18 finishes in his last four tries. I worry a little about his driving accuracy (DA) stats but since he’ll probably be playing less than driver off the tee his poor DA stats should be neutralized. (GPP and cash)
Kevin Chappell ($9,600):
If you ask the golfers on Tour who the best golfer without a victory is, the majority will say Kevin Chappell. He has come close twice this year coming in 2nd to Jason Day at both the PLAYERS and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has made his last four cuts at Colonial with two Top 20s in his last two starts and has above average stats for the course. He has a great tee to green game, makes a bunch of birdies, and plays par 4s well. He is going to win soon and I’m going to be on him every week until he does. (GPP and cash)
Others to look at in this price range:
Adam Scott ($11,300)
Zach Johnson ($10,700)
Kevin Na ($9,200)
Mid Level Golfers ($7100-$8900)
Danny Lee ($8,800):
Lee has been playing well since The Masters making 5/6 cuts with three Top 20 finishes. He lives in Texas and seems to do well at events in his adopted home state. He is my #4 ranked golfer overall this week and has great stats for the course. He’s 36th in SG:T2G, 75th in P4, 65th in GD%, 52nd in Scr, and 23rd in SG:P. He hasn’t missed a cut at Colonial in three tries and had a high finish of 10th here last year. (GPP and cash)
Colt Knost ($8,300):
Knost was one of my picks last week and he came through with a solid 4th place finish at the Byron Nelson. As I said last week, he is having the best year of his career making 16/17 cuts and has been playing exceptional recently with three Top 14 finishes in his last three events including a 3rd at the PLAYERS and a 4th last week. His stats for the course are just above average but he is supremely accurate off the tee, hits well from the sand, and is a very solid putter. All of these things will be needed this week to do well and I think Knost can keep his good play going. (GPP and cash)
Chez Reavie ($7,300)
After a solid stretch of golf in February and March, Reavie went through a mini slump but it looks like he has snapped out of it with a solid 18th place finish last week at the Byron Nelson. He has made 4/5 cuts at Colonial with two Top 11 finishes. He’s 24th in SG:T2G, 23rd in P4, and 6th in GD%. His scrambling and putting stats are a bit worrisome but he has great proximity stats from all distances and has a very high GIR%. These should be able to counteract his poor putting and scrambling and I expect him to easily make the cut and possibly make some noise on the weekend. (GPP only)
Bryce Molder ($7,100):
Molder has been running hot lately making his last eight cuts with five Top 26 finishes. He was in contention last week until a poor Sunday led to a 24th place finish. He has great stats for his price. He’s 84th in SG:T2G, 66th in P4, 48th in GD%, 20th in Scr, and 14th in SG:P. He has also made 5/6 cuts at Colonial so he has the experience factor as well. I think Molder is under priced this week and I’m comfortable using him in all formats. (GPP and cash)
Others to look at in this price range:
Bill Haas ($8,700)
Jim Furyk ($8,600)
Jason Dufner ($8,400)
Boo Weekley ($7,400)
Low End Value Picks ($5400-$7000)
William McGirt ($7,000):
McGirt comes in as my #9 ranked golfer overall and #4 ranked golfer when it comes just to stats. He’s 33rd in SG:T2G, 29th in P4, 22nd in GD%, 11th in Scr, and 91st in SG:P. He has been on a good run lately making his last four cuts with two Top 20 finishes. He has played Colonial five times and has only missed the cut once. (GPP and cash)
Daniel Summerhays ($7,000):
When it comes to golfers in this price range I like to look at current form a bit more than stats. Summerhays’ form is as good as any in this price range. He has made six of his last seven cuts with four Top 25 finishes including three in a row at the Valero, Wells Fargo, and the PLAYERS. His stats aren’t great but he makes a good amount of birdies and is an elite putter. He has made his last three cuts at Colonial and I don’t think a Top 25 here is out of the question. (GPP only)
David Hearn ($6,400):
Hearn has made five of his last seven cuts on Tour with three Top 28 finishes in his last four events. He has made 4/5 cuts at Colonial and has great stats for the course. He’s 75th in SG:T2G, 66th in P4, 16th in GD%, and 27th in SG:P. His scrambling stats are poor but he is 4th in overall proximity which should neutralize his poor scrambling. (GPP and cash)
Si Woo Kim ($5,900):
Si Woo started the year off strong but faded a bit in February and March. Since then though, it looks like his game is getting back on track. He actually comes in as my 21st ranked golfer overall in my model this week. He has made four of his last six cuts with three Top 25 finishes and has exceptional stats for his price. He’s 58th in SG:T2G, 48th in DA, 22nd in Scr, and 90th in SG:P. If you’re looking to make a stars and scrubs lineup, Si Woo looks like a good option this week. (GPP only)
Others to look at in this price range:
Will Wilcox ($6,700)
Emiliano Grillo ($6,700)
Adam Hadwin ($6,600)
George McNeil ($6,600)
Michael Kim ($6,500)
David Toms ($6,300)
That’s it for this week. For more PGA DFS knowledge check out my Podcast. It’s called Fantasy Golf Degenerates and you can find it on iTunes. I also host a web chat on Slurv.com every Wednesday at 1pm EST so if you have questions you can ask me there. I will be posting a video with my favorite cash game plays on Slurv.com every week as well. Follow me on Twitter for more fantasy golf info! Good luck to everyone this week and hopefully you win big!
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Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.