The PGA Tour moves slightly east this week as golfers play The Zurich Classic at TPC Louisiana in Avondale, 25 miles from Bourbon Street. This will be the 11th time this event has taken place at TPC Louisiana since 2005. TPC Louisiana is a 7,425 yard par 72 with four par 3s and four par 5s. This Pete Dye designed course is routinely one of the easiest courses on Tour each year with winning scores ranging from -15 to -20. There are a lot of short par 4s and all the par 5s should be reachable in two by most golfers. Off the tee golfers will face fairways that are above average in width, with many of them being tree lined. Bunkers of all shapes and sizes including small pot bunkers and humongous fairway bunkers will be waiting for golfers who hit errant tee shots. Speaking of humongous bunkers, the fairway bunker on 15 is over 150 yards long. The rough is thick but not overbearing and water will be in play on eight holes. The greens are average in size and speed with a stimpmeter rating of around 11. The greens are undulated but less so than most Pete Dye courses. Again, golfers who miss the green will have to deal with bunkers and collection areas, like most Pete Dye courses. Bermudagrass over seeded with poa trivialis will be the grass used on the greens. These greens are some of the easiest on Tour to putt on. Over the years there have been less three putts here than most courses and the make rate inside 5-10 ft is higher than most other courses on Tour as well. This might be the week where you can simply ignore putting stats. Many poor putters have won here including Jason Dufner, Jerry Kelly, Nick Watney, Andres Romero, and Bubba Watson. The weather could play a factor as rain and a little bit of wind is in the forecast for this week. Another tidbit about the course is that there are a lot of first time winners here. Seven of the last eleven winners at the Zurich Open have been first timers. This makes sense since the field is usually weak and the course is so easy. Taking fliers on lesser known golfers without a victory might make you some money come Sunday.
Looking at the course description above and trends for the course the last few years, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to select golfers for my DraftKings lineups this week.
Key Stats For The Course
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (SG:T2G):
SG:T2G is an important stat every week but it looks like it should be more important than usual here at TPC Louisiana. Since the greens are so easy to putt on, I think success will come from those who hit the ball well from tee to green. Since the tournament moved here in 2005, 24/35 golfers the finished Top 3 have been inside the Top 78 in this stat for the specific year they finished Top 3.
Par 5 Scoring (P5):
Golfers will need to go low on the par 5s to have a shot at contending this week. All four par 5s should be reachable by most golfers as long as they hit it in the fairway. Since 2005 25/35 golfers that finished in the Top 3 were inside the Top 78 in this stat for that respective year.
Birdie or Better % (BoB%):
Unless the weather does some crazy things, this week should be a birdie fest. Golfers will probably have to birdie 25 or more holes to have a chance at contending this week.
Proximity from 200 yards + (Prox200):
According to @FGMetrics (give them a follow on Twitter, solid statistical info every week) almost 30% of all approach shots at TPC Louisiana have come from over 200 yards. This makes sense since all four par 3s are over 200 yards, there are a few long par 4s, and golfers will be going for it in two on a lot of par 5s. 22/35 golfers that finished in the Top 3 here since 2005 have finished inside the Top 78 in this stat for the respective year they finished Top 3.
***Due to personal time restraints, I will just be listing my favorite golfers this week with no write up. The article will be back to normal next week. I apologize about this and if you have questions about why I like or dislike certain golfers this week, just shoot me a message on Twitter @KendoVT_DFS.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
Jason Day ($12,500)- GPP and cash
Justin Rose ($11,800)- GPP and cash
Billy Horschel ($10,300)- GPP and cash
Daniel Berger ($10,100)- GPP only
Smylie Kaufman ($9,500)- GPP only
Mid Level Golfers ($7000-$8900)
Charles Howell III ($8,700)- GPP and cash
Cameron Tringale ($8,600)- Cash only
Patton Kizzire ($8,200)- GPP only
Ben Martin ($7,900)- GPP and cash
Boo Weekley ($7,800)- GPP only
Jaime Donaldson ($7,600)- GPP only
David Hearn ($7,500)- GPP and cash
Luke List ($7,400)- GPP and cash
Lucas Glover ($7,200)- GPP only
Chad Campbell ($7,200)- GPP only
Patrick Rodgers ($7,200)- GPP only
Whee Kim ($7,100)- GPP and cash
Low End Value Picks ($5500-$6900)
Robert Streb ($6,900)- GPP only
Jason Gore ($6,800)- GPP and cash
David Toms ($6,700)- GPP and cash
Jason Bohn ($6,700)- GPP only
DA Points ($6,600)- GPP only
Andrew Loupe ($6,400)- GPP only
Alex Cejka ($6,300)- GPP only
Tim Wilkinson ($6,000)- GPP and cash
DH Lee ($5,900)- GPP only
That’s it for this week. For more PGA DFS knowledge check out my Podcast. It’s called Fantasy Golf Degenerates and you can find it on iTunes. I will also be co-hosting a web chat on Slurv.com every Tuesday at 1pm EST so if you have questions you can ask me there. You can also follow me on Twitter @KendoVT_DFS for more fantasy golf info! Good luck to everyone this week and hopefully you win big!