Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week one of the biggest stand outs when comparing Vegas odds and Salary is Jonathan Byrd who is better than 100:1 to win despite being only a few hundred above the minimum price. An interesting addition to the puzzle is that Byrd comes in with a recent 5th place finish two weeks ago and hasn’t missed a cut at this event in four tries including three top twenty finishes. Another Vegas standout is one of the most polarizing golf figures in daily fantasy in Bryson Dechambeau. There’s no doubt he has a unique scientific approach to the game, but Vegas sees him as a great value with 60:1 odds to win. Bryson has four missed cuts and a WD in his last five events which begs the question: What does Vegas know that we don’t?
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. There are a couple of obvious standouts this week in Peter Uihlein and Trey Mullinax who find themselves on opposite sides of the ownership coin. Uihlein who should go relatively unnoticed in the higher priced range is a European tour standout from Oklahoma State who once roomed and trained with Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth. Uihlein hasn’t missed a cut on the Euro tour this year and could make a great GPP candidate in a very weak field due to his low ownership. Trey Mullinax however will find himself much higher owned than his fellow sleeper candidates in part due to his well known length off the tee. This week should favor bombers with weather and length taken into account and Mullinax certainly fits the bill as the 7th ranked golfer on tour in driving distance.
Salary Vs. OWGR
As a result of the extremely weak field I’ve decided to throw this chart out for this week seeing as the resulting chart was very scattered and didn’t have much value in my opinion. One interesting tidbit that I feel worth mentioning is that the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) have a tendency to react very slowly to recent player performance. Take for example Brooks Koepka who since the beginning of 2017 has missed five of seven cuts and hasn’t finished better than 42nd. Despite his poor performance thus far Koepka still finds himself among the top 25 golfers in the world. On the other hand Jon Rahm also finds himself ranked just inside the top 25 golfers in the world, however Rahm in his first year on tour has made nine straight cuts and has six top fifteen finishes including a win. This phenomenon which I’ll call the “Keegan” effect is something that needs to be taken into account when reviewing our weekly OWGR chart.
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Puerto Rico Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.