Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. I am extremely pleased to say that this week one of my favorites over the past few months is one of the most obvious standouts on the Salary Vs. Vegas Odds chart we’ve seen all season. Tony Finau is 40:1 to win the tournament and is only $700 above the minimum salary! As a golfer who I believe has been underpriced for a large part of the season based on his skill level which has improved this season I will be rostering a lot of Tony Finau this week. Other standouts include Bernd Wiesberger, Ollie Shneiderjans, and recent winner D.A. Points, all of which make for decent GPP plays this week.Click To Enlarge!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week is extremely unique in that…there really aren’t any major ownership standouts on this chart! Ordinarily there are a few golfers who really stand out but this week, I expect ownership to spread with the variety of options in the field who have either exceptional course history, recent form, or in some cases both. If you really are looking for some marginal ownership spots you can expect Henrik Stenson to be lower owned than he should be as a result of his rocky play recently and WD mid round a month or so ago. With 5/5 made cuts at this event, two runner ups, and a third place finish here I plan on exploiting Stenson’s downward trend in ownership.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. The Salary Vs. Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) chart is designed to give you a feel for which players are over or underpriced compared to their sheer talent. This week brings us several standouts in both directions first and foremost being Bernd Wiesberger who was mentioned briefly already. I was surprised to learn that Bernd Wiesberger is 41st in the OWGR and trending upwards in the midst of playing some of his best golf coming into the tournament. I officially second my earlier opinion that Bernd will make a solid GPP option this week.
Shell Houston Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.