The Shriners Open is the second tournament of the Fall schedule and it is played at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. TPC Summerlin is a 7,223 yard par 71 course with dry, arid conditions. The course is on the easy side and last year it had the fourth lowest scoring average out of every course on Tour. Golfers will probably hit the ball around ten percent farther than normal due the thin air in Las Vegas. The fairways are very wide, the greens are huge and the rough is not too penalizing. Perfect setup for low scores. The winning score is almost always -20 or better so expect a lot of birdies and higher scoring than usual on DraftKings. If golfers miss wildly there is some trouble on the course with around 100 bunkers, 4 water hazards, and desert like native areas which can cause golfers some problems. All three par 5s are reachable and the last 4 holes will probably decide the tournament due to the risk/reward nature of these holes. 15 is a drivable par 4, 16 is a reachable par 5, 17 is a par 3, and 18 is a tough par 4. Expect fireworks on these last few holes on Sunday, as the leaders duke it out for the win.
Looking at the course description above and trends from previous tournaments held here, a few key stats come to mind. I will be using these stats, current form, and course history to pick golfers for my DraftKings lineup this week.
Key Stats For The Course
***In order of importance with the most important first. Not including Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (SG:T2G) and Strokes Gained:Putting (SG:P) which are important stats every week.
Birdie or Better % (BoB):
The course is so easy that making 25+ birdies for the week is really the only way to be in contention for the win. In the last four years 9 out the 12 golfers that finished in the Top 3 have had a BoB ranking of 40 or better for that specific year.
Par 4 Scoring (P4):
Golfers can’t rely on just scoring well on par 5s this week to contend since the course is not that difficult. They are going to have to do most of their damage from par 4s to have a chance on Sunday. 8 of the last 12 Top 3 finishers have ended that specific season 73rd or better in P4 including 6 golfers who were in the Top 24 in this stat for that specific year.
Hitting the ball close to the pin on approaches is an important aspect of making as many birdies as possible. 10 of the last 15 Top 3 finishers at TPC Summerlin finished 73rd or better in this stat for the specific year they finished in the Top 3.
Green in Regulation % (GIR):
The greens are large so hitting them will be easier this week but I still think the GIR stat will be important. 8 of the last 12 Top 3 finishers in this event have finished 74th or better in GIR for the specific year they finished in the Top 3.
High End Picks ($9000 and up)
*** I will be using stats from last season.
Rickie Fowler ($12,200):
Rickie is not my favorite high end play due to the price. He would have to finish in the Top 3 to retain value at his price and odds are greater that that won’t happen. He’s still on the list because he is the best golfer in the field. He has the best current form, finishing 12th, 4th, and 1st in his last three tournaments. He also finished 7th and 22nd at TPC Summerlin way back when Justin Timberlake was the host of this tournament. If you are doing multiple GPP lineups, I’d have him in at least one.
Brooks Koepka ($10,900):
Koepka has the third best stats for the course, finished 4th here in the past, and has pretty good recent form after struggling during the Fed Ex Cup playoffs. He makes a ton of birdies, scores well on par 4s, and is a good putter. All good things to be a contender this week.
Kevin Na ($10,400):
Kevin Na is my favorite high end play this week. He is a Las Vegas native and has won at TPC Summerlin in the past. He’s 26th in P4, 33rd in BoB, 49th in SG:P, and 28th in SG:T2G. At his price his stats aren’t the greatest but I can look past that with his success here in the past and his current form, which is second best in the field. In his last three tournaments he has finished 2nd, 16th, and 10th. I can see another Top 5 finish for him this week.
Emiliano Grillo ($10,200):
Grillo is the hottest golfer in this tournament. He has won his last two tournaments played and last week he won with negative SG:P meaning his tee to green game is spectacular. Fade him at your own risk.
Jason Bohn ($9,500):
Bohn has the second best stats for the course this week. He’s 28th in GIR, 6th in P4, 20th in BoB, 3rd in Prox, 46th in SG:P, and 40th in SG:T2G. He also finished 3rd last week and has never missed a cut here. He is a cash game staple this week.
Patrick Rodgers ($9,200):
Rodgers doesn’t have the best overall stats for the course but he is strong in the two most important stats this week, BoB (29th) and P4 (26th). He missed the cut in his only other appearance here but his current form is solid with two Top 6 finishes in his last 3 starts. I wouldn’t use him in cash games but he makes for a high upside GPP play.
Brendan Steele ($9,100):
Steele’s stats for the course are solid except for SG:P but as we saw last week with Grillo winning with negative SG:P, if your tee to green game is solid you can win without putting your best. Steele is 15th in SG:T2G, 40th in GIR, 10th in P4, and 14th in BoB. He has never missed a cut at TPC Summerlin and his current form is solid. He is safe to use in cash and GPPs this week.
Mid Level Golfers ($7000-$8900)
Russell Knox ($8,700):
I always shudder when I put Knox in one of my lineups because he’s burned me so many times in the past (see last week) but he has never missed a cut at TPC Summerlin and has really good stats for the course. He’s 7th in GIR, 7th in P4, 73rd in BoB, 2nd in Prox, and 23rd in SG:T2G. Still, use him with caution. Purely a GPP play.
Wil Wilcox ($8,200):
Like usual, Wil the Thrill is number 1 in stats for the course this week. He is inside the Top 32 in every key stat for the course. He was also in contention last week until he faded on the weekend. I think he continues his good play this week and another Top 20 finish is possible.
Daniel Summerhays ($8,000):
Summerhays has been playing decent lately, making his last three cuts with a 9th place finish a few weeks ago. His stats for the course are just decent but he makes a lot of putts, plays par 4s well, and is above average in BoB. Not a cash game play, but he’ll be in at least one of my GPP lineups.
Patton Kizzirie ($7,600):
Kizzirie was one of the best players on the Web.com Tour last year. He only missed two cuts and had nine Top 10 finishes. He was also the money leader for most of the year. His stats on the Web.com Tour last year were awesome. He was 8th in GIR, 2nd in P4, and 1st in BoB. I think he makes for a huge upside GPP play because his ownership will probably be low. I’m not sure many average fans know who this guy is, but they will soon.
Kevin Chappell ($7,500):
Chappell missed the cut last week but did finish 23rd and 12th in his previous two tournaments played. His stats for the course are solid for his price point. He’s 50th in P4, 48th in BoB, 37th in Prox, and 61st in SG:P. Not a cash game play because the best he’s finished at TPC Summerlin is 40th but he makes for an interesting high upside GPP play this week.
Ben Martin ($7,500):
Martin won here last year making a huge eagle putt late on Sunday to secure his victory. The defending champion at $7,500 is a very tempting pick. His stats for the course are solid for his price. He’s 34th in GIR, 74th in P4, 40th in BoB, 68th in Prox, and 71st in SG:P. He will be a popular pick this week.
Hudson Swafford ($7,400):
Swafford has the second best stats for the course of any golfer under $9,200 right behind Wil Wilcox. He’s 39th in GIR, 50th in P4, 23rd in BoB, 14th in Prox, and 26th in SG:P. He has also made his last three cuts on Tour and has never missed a cut at TPC Summerlin. I love him for cash games this week, especially because of his cheap price.
Lucas Glover ($7,200):
Glover has been playing some of his best golf the last few months. He has made his last seven cuts and has finished inside the Top 20 in his last three starts. His stats are just average but he hits a lot of greens, hits it close, and his tee to green game is solid. I expect his ownership level to be low because he has never made the cut here so he makes for a solid GPP play and I wouldn’t be against using him in cash lineups as well.
Daniel Hearn ($7,100):
Hearn has solid stats for the course and has finished 5th at TPC Summerlin in the past. He’s 47th in GIR, 26th in P4, 80th in BoB, 52nd in Prox, and 27th in SG:P. He has missed two of his last three cuts so I would be wary of using him in cash games but I have no problem in using him in a couple of GPP lineups.
William McGirt ($7,100):
McGirt has made six of his last seven cuts on Tour and has made the cut three out of four times at TPC Summerlin. His stats for the course are good for his price. He’s 50th in GIR, 26th in P4, 26th in Prox, and 46th in SG:T2G. I think he makes the cut this week and I will probably be using him in cash game lineups.
Low End Value Picks ($5100-$7000)
Stewart Cink ($6,900):
Cink is my favorite value play this week. He has the best stats for the course for golfers under $7,000. He’s 3rd in GIR, 26th in P4, 74th in BoB, 4th in Prox, 81st in SG:P, and 56th in SG:T2G. He also has never missed a cut at TPC Summerlin and has a Top 10 finish in his last event on Tour. He will be the lowest priced player in my cash lineups this week.
Brendon de Jonge ($6,800):
de Jonge has only made three of six cuts at TPC Summerlin but finished 2nd a few years ago. His stats for the course are decent. He’s 62nd in GIR, 50th in P4, 58th in BoB, 72nd in Prox, and 57th in SG:T2G. He is definitely a risk/reward GPP play this week.
Colt Knost ($6,600):
Knost putts well, hits it close on approaches, and scores well on par 4s. All of these will come in handy this week. He has made his last two cuts on Tour and finished in the Top 20 twice at TPC Summerlin. He is a solid play for his price this week.
Jim Herman ($6,400):
Herman has made five of his last six cuts with four Top 30 finishes in that span. Really solid for his price. He has made two of three cuts in Vegas with a high finish of 18. His stats are good for his price. He’s 2nd in GIR, 50th in P4, 7th in Prox, and 52nd in SG:T2G. I think he makes the cut this week with possible Top 25 upside.
Vijay Singh ($6,300):
Even though Vijay is old enough to play on The Champions Tour, he still makes a ton of cuts on the regular Tour including his last four and all three at TPC Summerlin. At $6,300 you want golfers who can make the cut with upside and Vijay falls into this category.
Tom Hoge ($6,100):
Just a couple months ago Hoge was contending at the Wyndham Championship so you know the upside is there. He also finished in the Top 25 in his last three recent events on the Web.com Tour including a 2nd place finish a couple of weeks ago. His stats for the course are above average. He’s 50th in P4, 34th in BoB, 9th in Prox, and 52nd in SG:T2G.
Shawn Stefani ($6,000):
Stefani missed the cut last week but has still made four of his last six cuts overall. He hits a ton of greens, scores well on par 4s, and is 20th in BoB. All solid for a golfer of his price. I think he makes the cut this week.
Dawie van der Walt ($5,900):
On the Web.com Tour last year Dawie was 3rd in GIR, 3rd in P4, and 7th in BoB. That’s enough for me to take a flier on him in a couple of GPP lineups. His ownership will be very low.
Whee Kim ($5,800):
Whee has solid stats for the course. He’s 46th in GIR, 26th in P4, 70th in BoB, and 31st in Prox. He misses a lot of cuts so he is a risky play but all golfers at this price point are risky. His stats and price make him viable to use in GPP lineups this week.