Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
It’s exciting to be back to PGA DFS with a full field event and plenty of value to be found. The first chart is arguably one of the best at pointing out value by comparing player salary differentials to Vegas odds to win. The first obvious standout is Webb Simpson who is at only $6,800 which is nearly $2,000 cheaper than when we last saw Webb Simpson at the RSM Classic last year. Not only is his price tag juicy, Simpson has easily the best vegas odds to win in this price range, and it doesn’t hurt that he has never missed a cut here in seven tries and could be severely low owned since he is at the same price as Jerry Kelly who is likely to be popular.
The other standout on this chart is Rod Pampling who is priced at $6,300 and has odds to win around 158:1. While I don’t think the pricing is too difficult this week and there may be no need to drop down in this price range too heavily, Rod Pampling definitely makes an interesting play since his recent form is solid.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for nearly an entire golf season. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter @bradmessersmith to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information.
This week is going to be very interesting when it comes to ownership because of the soft pricing. The obvious standouts when it comes to high ownership vs salary are Charles Howell III and Jerry Kelly who both will see extremely inflated ownership as a result of their elite course history at this event.
Bill Haas and Si-Woo Kim, however, both are projected to have some of the lowest ownership in their respective price ranges. Aside from several missed cuts here Bill Haas did manage to finish in the top ten at this event previously but hasn’t played here since 2010. Si-Woo Kim on the other hand has only played here once and has a fourth place finish. Without any good recent form for either I think they both make interesting GPP plays but should probably be left off your rosters in cash formats.
Vegas Odds Vs. Ownership Projections
Again Jerry Kelly and Charles Howell III stand out in a bad way in the Odds vs Ownership chart, so expect these guys to lose a bit of their value with high ownership. On the flip side of the coin Justin Rose and Scott Piercy both show a bit of promise in the value department when comparing ownership and Odds to win. With Justin Rose being an elite golfer who is capable of toppling some of the best golfers in the world I think he makes a fantastic GPP option, especially when you consider that in his two tries at this event he has never finished outside of the top 15. Scott Piercy has had his own share of top 15 finishes at this event and is coming in with great form as well and should definitely be a strong consideration in GPP formats.
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.