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What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! The Tour Championship is finally here! The incredible 2016 PGA Tour season wraps up this weekend at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta Georgia, where the FedEx Cup trophy will be handed out. A tiny 30 man field will compete for the chance at hoisting the season’s last trophy, and that small field size will make creating DraftKings lineups a lot more challenging this week.
First of all, in tournaments, it is a must to leave cash remaining on the table in order to differentiate your lineups. If you are making multiple lineups, don’t be afraid to leave $500-$1000 on the table, and in some cases, it might make sense to leave even more. This is the easiest way to create separation over your competition, since ownership percentages will be through the roof this week. Similar to other no cut events, DraftKings bonus points will be a huge factor, so targeting birdie makers and guys who can roll in the odd eagle or two will become more valuable.
Let’s get to the picks!
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests
Jordan Spieth – $10,600
In an event where ownership will be inflated at all tiers of the DraftKings pricing, I am focusing on Jordan Spieth, who I think will be the lowest owned top tier golfer. His recent form is decent, but doesn’t compare to the golfers above him who have a win in the last two weeks. Spieth comes in ranked second in my overall weighted rankings because this week, I am looking at putting and scrambling as some major stats, combine with birdie or better percentage. I think Spieth comes in this week and defends his title, and gives himself a good chance of winning back-to-back FedEx Cup titles.
Adam Scott – $10,100
No one has been playing more consistent golf these playoffs than Adam Scott. He has recorded three straight 4th place finishes, and has a great shot at winning the FedEx Cup. Scott has been held winless since early March, but his recent form shows how close he is to finally claiming a victory. He hasn’t finished inside the top-5 at this event within the past five years, but he also hasn’t finished outside of the top-20. Scott is a cash game lock for me, and will likely be popular in GPPs, so be sure to go all in on him if you agree with my take.
Phil Mickelson – $8,100
I suspect Phil Mickelson will go a little more under owned than usual this week. His recent results since his epic duel at The Open have been very average, but his stats are what intrigue me this week, coming in ranked 2nd in my weighted stats model.
We all know Phil is a world-class scrambler and putter, but none of Phil’s other stats I am looking at this week scare me. I think Mickelson will fly under the radar at a price that will largely be overlooked in terms of lineup construction.
Price too high? Seems like chalk? Players I will have no share of
Rory McIlory – $11,100
Personally, I will not be playing enough lineups to roster everyone, so fading Rory is the direction I am going this week. I just find myself in situations where I would rather pay up for Dustin Johnson or drop down to Jordan Spieth. He has won recently but his results that surround that win are too inconsistent for me.
Gary Woodland – $7,800
I guess I will never understand the Gary Woodland love. At $7,800, I’d expect at least solid recent form or course history, but Woodland has neither. Woodland is a sporadic golfer who can sometimes put together a solid round of golf or two and sneak inside the top 20. I don’t see any winning potential from Woodland this week.
So you got burned?
Previously high owned golfers to consider
Jason Day – $10,300
Jason Day withdrew from the BMW Championship, and has left a lot of DFSers in a tough spot deciding whether or not to roster Day in the playoff finale. If you have paid attention to any of Day’s issues in the past, it should be clear that he never lets an illness or some lingering injury affect his game. He’s been sick, battled back injuries and vertigo, yet he always comes out and dominates the weeks we are wondering if he is healthy or not. I am not willing to risk fading Day, and then it turns out he is healthy as ever and I’m left kicking myself on Sunday. I plan on rostering Day in about 25% of my lineups this week, which should be enough to be overweight compared to the field.
Jason Dufner – $6,400
With a small field this week, the pickings for these segments are slim. But, Dufner had been showing very consistent form before the BMW Championship, and was fairly priced as well. A lot of people rostered Duf, only to be rewarded with a subpar T60 finish. Dufner has played in the Tour Championship three times within the past five seasons, which is more than anyone else priced in this range. If you are going stars and scrubs, Dufner is your guy.
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere
Paul Casey – $9,500
Casey is another guy, like Adam Scott, who has stepped it up come playoff time. He has back-to-back 2nd place finishes coming into the Tour Championship, and got a significant price increase because of that. At $9,500, priced right below the ultra popular Adam Scott, Casey will likely go overlooked as the highest priced four-digit golfer. Typical lineup constriction will see two high priced golfers be selected, which will force DFS players to drop down to fill out their remaining spots. Casey offers some solid cash relief off of the top guys and definitely has shown he can contend with the best in the world. Don’t be shocked if Paul Casey ends up lifting the FedEx Cup trophy come Sunday.
Si Woo Kim – $6,700
Since I believe stars and scrubs will be a popular approach to building lineups this week, I think Si Woo Kim will be one of the least popular golfers in the sub $7K range. Kim is in the hunt for the rookie of the year award, and needs a solid finish this week to solidify that honor. He is priced near the likes of Daniel Berger, Emiliano Grillo and Kevin Na, three very popular golfers in the fantasy golf world. Kim is the only value golfer coming into this event with a win, and back-to-back top-20 finishes in his last five outings. Kim will be in the competition for the lowest owned golfer this week, which presents tremendous value and upside to anyone who rosters him.
That does it folks! I want to thank everyone who has been reading my content this year. I am thankful for the opportunity to share my thoughts and talk some golf with you guys. I hope you have all had a profitable season, and I look forward to bringing more golf content to you in the fall swing season!
Good luck this week everybody!