Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week is truly unique in that the pricing on Draftkings is extremely unusual. The first case study to that point is Padraig Harrington who comes in as the twelfth highest ranked golfer despite that he has 219:1 odds to win this week. My theory is that Harrington is a typo, but I can’t possibly imagine that’s true. Either way I would strongly suggest avoiding him. On the opposite side of the spectrum lies Louis Oosthuizen at only $6,900 with 75:1 odds to win. At this rate he is on of the biggest pricing discrepancies on the board this week and makes a phenomenal GPP play.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This is probably the most interesting plot with the pricing being so soft this week. You should be able to quickly realize that Rickie Fowler is going to be extremely low owned compared to his $9,500 salary. Surprisingly enough, Rickie Fowler is far and away my favorite golfer regardless of his ownership. Toss in the fact that he is expected to come in at under 10% owned and it’s more than enough for me to want to really pile Rickie into a lot of lineups. Alternatively, last week’s champion Jon Rahm is expected to be the highest owned golfer in the field. I wouldn’t advocate completely fading Rahm given he attended college at Arizona State and seems poised to make a strong run at being one of the top golfers on tour.
Salary Vs. OWGR
I’m pleased to bring you a brand new chart that will become a regular feature on ‘The Charts’ series; Salary versus Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). Outside of the formerly mentioned Jon Rahm and Padraig Harrington, we see Mark Wilson stand out in a negative way along with Craig Hocknull and Charlie Beljan. Probably not ideal candidates for fliers this week as opposed to Louis Oosthuizen who again shows up in the OWGR vs. Salary plot as a potential value. Matt Kuchar however at only $7,400 is the 21st ranked golfer in the world. Being priced under $7,500 is an incredible value for a golfer of Kuchar’s talent. With Kuchar’s combination of consistency and upside, he may be a good option for both GPPs and Cash this week.
Waste Management Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.