Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. This week you can expect things to be a bit unique in that it’s a short field WGC event with no cut and there always tends to be a few surprises that get thrown into the mix on weeks like this. That being said the Salary Vs. Vegas Odds chart brings us the likes of Jimmy Walker who at roughly 60:1 odds is only $7,000 and on the surface seems underpriced. I’ve been very bullish on Jimmy Walker over the course of the last month and this week is no different. My only concern with Walker is whether or not he can stay out of trouble on what seems to be a course that requires some level of accuracy. The other standout on this chart is Johnattan Vegas who comes in near the minimum price and is coming into the event with incredible form. It’s no wonder Vegas’ odds are only a mere 100:1 despite being near the minimum price.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. Again you can expect some degree of inaccuracy this week when it comes to ownership due to the fact that there are a lot fewer golfers in the field. Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas come in as potential low owned candidates for GPPs which is interesting because I could certainly see either of the two winning this week. As was the case with Walker, McIlroy and Thomas have been known to suffer from inaccuracy from time to time so I have some similar concerns with these two.
Salary Vs. OWGR
The Salary Vs. OWGR chart has become a familiar friend at this point and is a great comparison between overall skill and salary which tends to show regularly how even some of the most skilled players can sometimes be well under priced. This week there is no subtlety in the standout in Danny Willett, who despite being the 14th ranked golfer in the world is priced as the 67th golfer this week! He is priced below the likes of Ross Fisher, Jeunghun Wang, Hideto Tanihara, Fabrizio Zanotti and Michael Hendry, despite the fact that he is clearly one of the best talents in the world and won a major championship last season. Don’t overthink Willett this week and take the discount.
WGC Mexico Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.