Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. There are really three true standouts this week which is very exciting in such a week field event. The results of events following a major tend to be fairly wide open because of the weaker base of players playing in these events. The first potential value that stands out on this chart is Patrick Rodgers who has roughly 60:1 odds to win this week despite a mere $7,000 price tag. The same can also be said for Daniel Summerhays who is in nearly an identical boat. Both Summerhays and Rodgers are intriguing to me having made exactly four cuts in a row each. With Rodgers we’re typically used to a very streaky set of results with missed cuts and upside being the normal mix, and Rodgers coming in off of a second place finish at the John Deer Classic two weeks ago leaves me wondering if his upward trend will continue. Either way both Summerhays and Rodgers will definitely make their way into my GPP lineups this week.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. In terms of ownership this week, given it’s a weak field, you can expect there to be some serious clusters of ownership on a small few players. It’s hard to predict these clusters early in the week but given the aforementioned fact that results will tend to be wide open in an event like this, it may be a good week to go a bit contrarian. One name who catches the eye in that department is Rick Lamb, who at $6,800 has made four of his last five cuts and finished top 20 in three of those same events. Two weeks ago he managed to find himself in contention with a 3rd place finish at the John Deere classic, and we are on a track that plays to Rick’s strength…his cannon. It may surprise you to find out that Rick is in the top 10 in Strokes Gained off the tee, yet remains in the top 25 in proximity which makes him a skilled second shot player with a well-rounded game which should suit this course perfectly. Sign me up, and for those of you who are playing along in Vegas, I will be placing a few loose coins on Rick Lamb to win this thing at nearly 200:1 odds.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. A quick glance at this chart and Will McGirt should instantly stand out to you. I suspect a quick glance at the list of salaries may have warranted the same results which means McGirt will most likely suffer from the ‘cluster effect’ of ownership I mentioned previously. McGirt has great course history and his 56th rank in the world makes him nearly the tenth best ranked golfer in this field despite his near minimum salary price tag. While I don’t love McGirt’s chances to win this thing, I definitely thing he has top 10 upside and is probably worth taking a hard look at in GPPs.
RBC Canadian Open Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.