What’s goin’ on fantasy golf fans?! I hope everyone had a successful week in Mexico. My picks last week weren’t as hot as the Mexican sun, but at least they weren’t as s***ty as Chesson Hadley’s weekend.
We are winding down in the 2017 calendar year for golf, so let’s enjoy our last no cut event of the season – the RSM Classic. The touring pros are heading to Sea Island Golf Club on the east coast of Georgia. This event will be played on two different courses on Thursday and Friday. They golfers will rotate between the Seaside and Plantation course, before heading back to the Seaside course for the weekend. Both courses play very similar, ending up just over 7,000 yards in length. The golfers who typically have had great success at this event have been the accuracy, plotter type who tend to hit a lot of fairways and greens. Distance will not be required this week, and many golfers will not need to use a driver all weekend. The courses main defence is wind due to its proximity to the ocean. Scores over the past few years have ranged from -14 to -22 since the first event was played here in 2010.
Stats for the Week
SG-Approach – 30%
Birdie or Better Gained – 25%
SG- Off the Tee – 10%
Par 4 400-450 – 10%
SG- Putting – 10%
Fairways Gained – 10%
SG- Around the Green – 5%
Alright, let’s get to the picks!
My favorite golfers for the week – for Cash and GPP contests.
Matt Kuchar – $11,100
The fact that Matt Kuchar isn’t the most expensive golfer in this field is value in itself. Yes, Kisner has won here before, but there are very few golfers in the game as consistent as Kuch. His accuracy should play perfect at Sea Island. In my weighted stat model, he ranks 1st when looking at all recorded rounds, emphasizing his fit for the course. His lack of recent play doesn’t concern me. Kuch’s game is so steady that some time off is likely beneficial.
Charles Howell – $9,500
There are few golfers that like Sea Island more than Charles Howell III. In his past five trips here, he has made the cut each time and has three top 13 finishes. Howell has and never will be considered a winner but he has an excellent chance at a top 10 every week. His last three results are all top 20s and are trending in the right direction capped by his T4 last week at the OHL. $9,500 is a perfect price to start your cash game lineups.
J.J. Spaun – $9,000
Last week was a big test for Spaun. His collapse at the Shriners was well documented, so seeing how he performed at the OHL would be telling of his mental game. He came T14 last week gaining seven shots on the field – a very good result given the circumstances. Now that the Shriners let down is well in the past, Spaun heads to an event that should fit his game. He ranks 3rd in my stat model over the past 12 rounds, crushing it on approach shots, birdie or better and on Par 4s between 400-450. This is the last event golfers like Spaun will have a chance to win before the calendar turns, so look for that extra motivation vault a lot of golfers on the cusp to the top of the board.
J.T. Poston – $7,200
Somehow J.T. Poston is only $7,200 and that must be taken advantage of. Like Spaun, Poston has played back-to-back really solid tournaments and finds himself in a must win situation. Poston is one of many golfers who calls Sea Island Golf Club home, so look for that extra level of comfort to work in his advantage. Over his past 12 rounds, Poston has been great off the tee, making birdies on Par 4s and solid around the green. It will take all that again for Poston to make a run before the 2017 season comes to a close.
Seamus Power – $6,900
Seamus Power is my favourite play in the sub $7K range. He is similar to Poston in the fact that he too calls Sea Island his home course, despite being from Ireland. That Irish background will also help Power here as the windy conditions are something he is very use to playing in. Power did miss the cut last week at the OHL Classic by two shots, which is an expected result on occasion for a golfer of this caliber. It was only three tournaments ago where Power gained 6.9 shots on the field in approach shots. If that form returns a top 10 is well within reach.
RSM Classic Interactive Data
Note these tools are FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “ERIC” for 15% off:
[ess_grid alias=”PGA Packages”]
Identifying the chalk, and going elsewhere.
Zach Johnson – $9,100
Taking a quick peek at FanShareSports, Zach Johnson leaps off the page as a $9K+ golfer who won’t garner much attention this week. He only has eight tags this week despite his ideal fit for the course. He ranks 1st in the field from the key Par 4 range of 400-450. This course has nine Par 4s that fall in that range giving ZJ an edge on half of the holes. He’s played real solid in his last two starts and this is a field that he can easily contend in.
Bud Cauley $8,500
Bud Cauley has fallen off the radar because of his time off and poor performances in Asia. Everyone was on him to being the fall swing season because he was one of those guys you could see winning a weaker field event. Being $8,500 this week will keep his ownership down even though he is a fit for the course. At the end of the 2017 season he showed that he could be one of the better ball strikers on tour. Take a gamble on one of the best low owned-high upside plays on the board.
Beau Hossler – $8,000
Hossler has been very impressive this fall and what better way to cap it off than with a win at the RSM. He came back down to earth last week at the OHL Classic, but before that had two top 10s. He has shown consistency tee to green as well as the ability to roll the rock on the green. Beau only has five tags on FanShareSports compared to Scott Brown’s 13 priced the exact same. I have a strong feeling Beau finishes the fall season strong.
Bad course fit? Highly owned for the wrong reason? Players I will have no shares of.
Brian Harman – $11,000
Brian Harman is $11,000 and it’s a hard pass for me. It’s not necessarily the price that scares me – it’s a terrible field and he is one of the better golfers. But I don’t see a big difference between him and a few guys priced $2,000 cheaper, say Zach Johnson for example. There will be a lot of talk about Harman this week because he is from the area, but it looks like that is a detriment to him for this event in the past. Harman has missed the last two cuts here and only has one top 10 in five years.
Brandt Snedeker – $8,600
Usually this would be a great spot to jump on Snedeker because of the weak field and very affordable price. However, he hasn’t played since the Travelers (end of June) and that is very concerning. I’m sure he has been hitting the ball fine at the range and feels healthy, however there should be hesitation when rostering a guy who hasn’t played competitive golf in five months. I’ll wait til 2018 before Sneds is worth consideration.
So, you got burned?
Recently got screwed by a missed cut or a poor performance? Looks like a good time to jump back on.
Chesson Hadley – $10,200
The case of the Mexican runs claimed another victim. After battling to make the cut on Friday, Hadley must have had one too many burritos Friday night in celebration and there just were not enough outhouses on the course to play a full 18. Hopefully he got his imodium in him and is ready to rock for the RSM Classic. He has been playing lights out this fall and there is no reason to believe it will not continue.
Nick Taylor – $7,600
Taylor was one of many chalk plays that burned people at the OHL Classic. His solid form entering the week was intriguing and he was only $7,400. Now Taylor gets a price bump of $200 off a missed cut, and his tags have decreased from 14 to two on FanShareSports. The potential for back-to-back missed cuts is there, but his ownership will be non-existent in GPPs and is definitely worth a look.
Aaron Wise – $7,500
I have a weird gut feeling that Aaron Wise is going to contend this week. He has been hyped up all fall series as a potential first time winner – and has played decent up until last week. As mentioned prior, this is the last shot these tour rookies have to win before for the full season begins. People are bored of rostering/touting Wise so while everyone is looking elsewhere, this is a perfect time to capitalize on recency bias.
Thanks for reading the RSM Classic preview article! You can follow me on Twitter for more golf and betting talk! Also, make sure you check out @FanShareSports. They track and curate content produced across the DFS Golf industry, and highlight which players are being tagged or talked about the most, translating to an excellent ownership guide.
Good luck this week everybody!