Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. It’s finally here, The Open Championship! With the field being maxed out with some of the best golfers in the world this week you can expect to find some serious value. First and foremost we have Rafael Cabrera-Bello, who for those of you who may not be following the Euro Tour closely, is coming off of his first win in roughly four years at the Scottish Open last week. At only roughly 60:1 odds to win, Vegas believes RCB is more likely to win than names like Daniel Berger, Brandt Snedeker, and Zach Johnson. Berger and Snedeker actually stand out on their own for value purposes, both of which find themselves similarly priced to RCB. At the end of the day all three of these guys could win this tournament and find themselves sub $7k, so don’t overthink and plug them in!
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. This week you can expect a few things to be true, one of which is that Jason Day will be extremely low owned due to his recent struggles. I’m personally going to be taking a wait and see approach, but when it comes to a golfer as talented as Jason Day, if you wait and see it may be too late because he can come out of nowhere to win. On the flip side you can definitely expect the likes of Rickie Fowler, and Hideki Matsuyama to come in as two of the more popular plays this week.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. It should probably come as no surprise to see Daniel Berger’s name make the list when it comes to Salary Vs. OWGR this week given my statements above. You can expect Daniel Berger not to go unnoticed with his price tag, but if you’re looking for a bit of a pivot, you may think about considering Alexander Noren who most will have forgotten is actually ranked within the top 10 golfers in the world. Yet Noren’s price is only $7,800 and I don’t expect him to be one of the more popular plays on the board.
The Open Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.