Welcome to “The Charts”, a series that will take a deep dive on a weekly basis into PGA salaries, Vegas odds, Expected Ownership, and last but certainly not least; value. In a world where the edges in daily fantasy are so slim, every informational advantage possible needs to be exploited aggressively without hesitation. This series is designed to help you find that edge.
Salary Vs. Vegas Odds
While I don’t suggest making decision based purely on Vegas Odds when it comes to golf, I think it’s a useful way to determine where you might find golfers with unexpected value. The first standout this week comes in the form of Lucas Glover who’s odds are roughly 100:1 to win despite the fact that Glover will cost you only $6,600 towards the salary cap to get him in your lineups. Particularly in a marginal field like the one this week, Glover’s price certainly does stand out, and on a course with much slower greens, Glover’s putting weakness may be masked enough to make him a great GPP play. The other standout is probably one that you’ve heard mentioned elsewhere in Charley Hoffman. It seems fairly obvious that Hoffman is under priced this week, which is in agreement with the charts. Hoffman has made eight of his last nine cuts and is trending upward with his recent eighth place finish at the U.S. Open.
Salary Vs. Ownership Projections
For those of you who are unfamiliar with my work, each week I do ownership projections that have stood the test of time, and been proven accurate for over a season now. The ownership projections you see here are my initial projections and will be updated as the week goes on so be sure to follow me on twitter to find out where you can get all the most updated ownership information. If you’ve been following this article series regularly you will have become used to the idea that the highest priced golfers are typically going to be the highest owned golfers on the slate with a few exceptions. This week just might be an exception with Justin Thomas and Paul Casey offering massive discounts in comparison to several golfers who just recently missed the cut in the $11,000 and up range. While some of this depends on whether the general public decides they aren’t worried about Jason Day and Rory McIlroy’s recent missed cuts at the U.S. Open. The only other really interesting standout on the ownership chart this week is Jim Furyk who is currently projected at under 5% ownership, in part because of his massive price jump between last week and this week. Jim Furyk has played poorly all year, however finished twenty-third last week at the U.S. Open and managed to shoot professional golf’s first ever 58 at this course last year which probably has led to the price jump. I will be taking a wait and see approach with Jim Furyk, but if you think he continues to trend upward, now would be the time to nab him at super low ownership.
Salary Vs. OWGR
Do you wonder how quickly the salaries are adjusted as a result of player’s performance? Ever wonder if there are players who’s prices don’t reflect their overall skill? These are questions you should be asking every week if you are serious about DFS, and now you can get the answer in one easy chart. This week’s OWGR chart has some very interesting standouts this week, one of whom is Wesley Bryan who’s official world golf ranking is 40th in the world despite his sub $7k price tag. Wes Bryan has been particularly bad over the course of the last month following his first win on tour having missed three of his last four cuts and finishing no better than 45th place. At some point I expect Wes Bryan to bounce back, and why not this week on a course that plays to Bryan’s strengths? Wes Bryan has the game to win an event like this and is going to be my super sleeper to win here
Travelers Championship Research Spreadsheet
Note that this spreadsheet is FREE each week for Pro Members. If you are not a Pro Member, use code “BRAD” for 15% off:
Do you want to see a different set of charts? Let me know if there is information you want to see and how you want to see it, I’m always looking for new ways to analyze information. Get more updates, analysis, and answers to all your questions by following me on twitter.