Tournament History, Performance, Stats and Salaries At Bottom!
The second major of the year is finally upon us as the U.S. Open heads to Oakmont Country Club. A couple of items worth mentioning about Oakmont country club include its incredible difficulty, and its incredible difficulty. Yes you are not seeing double, this course is so difficult I thought it was worth saying twice. In the most recent U.S. Open hosted by Oakmont, the winner was five over par and sixteen over par was good for top twenty-six. Because 2007 was the only recent U.S. Open hosted at Oakmont, most of any relevant course history has to be thrown out unfortunately. Tread carefully this week and as always good luck!
Hot Course History:
Justin Rose ($10,500) – Obviously with only one data point course history has to be taken with a grain of salt this week as the sample size is not nearly large enough to feel even remotely comfortable with. That being said, Justin Rose has the game that on paper should suit this course very well and boasts a top ten finish from 2007. While this would mark his second appearance here, I like the chances that Justin Rose follows up with another solid performance in 2016.
Bubba Watson ($9,500) – Although Bubba Watson doesn’t fit the profile of golfers who one could expect to do well at Oakmont, he has a fifth place finish in his last appearance at Oakmont. His inaccuracies off the tee certainly won’t help him, but his proximity and tee-to-green game appear to have been enough to make up for the major hole in his game. I’m not sold Bubba can follow up his 2007 performance but he is certainly in play this week.
Cold Course History:
Phil Mickelson ($9,300) – Phil Mickelson missed the cut in his only appearance at this event and seems like he makes good sense in the cold course history section. His propensity to make high numbers and wildly spray the ball off the tee should cause him some problems at this course. It is worth mentioning that in 2007 Phil injured his wrist in a practice round coming into Oakmont and may have had something to do with his weak performance.
Henrik Stenson ($9,100) – Stenson also left Oakmont in 2007 early with a missed cut and despite the fact that his game should suit this course well, we have seen him play poorly in very difficult conditions this year. Stenson has elite course history at TPC Sawgrass and we saw him miss the cut at The Player’s Championship after what were considered by many the most difficult conditions they had ever seen at Sawgrass.
Hot Recent Form:
Matt Kuchar ($8,500) – Perhaps you may have noticed but Matt Kuchar hasn’t finished outside the top ten in five weeks. His eight straight made cuts and five top tens in six events gives him some of the best recent form on tour. Expect him to be very highly owned as a result but it’s tough to make a case for fading Kuchar at this point.
Dustin Johnson ($11,000) – I suspect you may have also noticed Dustin Johnson’s incredible run with five top tens in seven events and four top fives in that same span however it’s his recent form in majors which you may not have noticed so easily. Johnson has finished inside the top ten in five of his last seven majors and has made every cut in that same span. He may be the hottest golfer on tour right now but he is the without a doubt the most consistent golfer in majors over the past two years.
Cold Recent Form:
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,200) – Oosthuizen is coming into the U.S. Open with back to back missed cuts and it’s enough to really leave me concerned. That being said he has a litany of top tens at this event and there have been instances in the past where he has come into the U.S. Open with similarly poor recent form so if you are feeling contrarian by all means don’t hesitate to use him.
Rickie Fowler ($10,700) – Rickie comes in with easily the worst form in this price range and as such I will be completely fading him. Three missed cuts in five events with only one top ten in fourteen weeks is not enough from one of the top golfers in the field. Until I see something change in performance from Rickie I may be off him for good.
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