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What’s goin’ on everyone?! I hope everyone enjoyed the Olympic golf, had a share of Justin Rose somewhere and avoiding using any of the Canadians, DeLaet teased us all. Ryan Moore took down the John Deere Classic I’m assuming no one witnessed live. We were spoiled with a double dose of DFS golf, so back we go to the regular old one PGA Tour event, The Wyndham Championship.
The touring pros head to Greensboro, North Carolina, the home of Sedgefield Country Club, which is a short – 7,127 yards – par 70. The course only features two Par 5s to go along with 12 Par 4s. Some stats I will be looking at this week are
-Strokes Gained T2G
-Strokes Gained Putting
-Good Drive Percentage
-Proximity from 150-175 (about 30% of approach shots will come from this range)
-Par 4 scoring average and
-Birdie or Better Percentage (winning score has been -17 the last two years)
Let’s get onto the picks…
Hideki Matsuyama – $11,400
If you have read any of my previous articles where Hideki Matsuyama is in the field, I likely talked about him. He is a DFS favorite of mine, even though he has burned me a couple times recently. I noticed is terrible form going into the PGA Championship, so I jumped on at low ownership, which turned into a top 5 from Matsuyama. His elite ranking in strokes gained T2G and birdie or better percentage makes him a favorite to finish inside the top 5 of DraftKings scoring. I am hoping his high price tag and poor tournament history suppress his ownership, as I see another top 5 finish lurking,
Webb Simpson – $10,200
Simpson comes in ranking 1st in my overall rankings due to his dominance at this event in the past. He is a previous winner here (2011) and has finishes of 11th, 5th, and 6th his last three tries. He ranks 9th in Par 4 scoring average and 11th in strokes gained T2G, which shapes up perfectly for Sedgefield. I suspect Webb to be the most popular play in the field this week, making him more of a cash game play than GPP.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello – $8,900
First of all, I had no idea Cabrera-Bello was 32. Call me naïve for thinking he was a young and upping coming Spaniard. Regardless, I love RCB this week due to his low price tag and cut making ability. He’s made nine straight cuts and only missed one cut all season, while mixing in multiple top 10 finishes. He had a fantastic Olympic tournament, finishing within the top 5. He’s compeating for a spot on the Ryder Cup team, and a win at the Wyndham Championship, which I am predicting, would make him a lock to make the team.
Jason Dufner – $7,900
Dufner comes in 5th in my overall rankings this week, so I cannot ignore him. No one in his price range has better looking stats than Dufner, ranking 28th in SG:T2G, 32nd in Par 4 scoring average and 26th in birdie or better percentage. His last missed cut was at The Masters so he is extremely safe for cash.
Bud Cauley – $7,000
I was on Cauley last week and he came through with an 8th place finish, so I’m double dipping and looking to take advantage of a golfer who seems to be underpriced. He ranks 4th in good drive percentage, 20th from 150-175, 20th in Par 4 scoring average and 21st in birdie or better percentage. I love those stats for this week – I’m all in on Bud Cauley.
Jim Furyk – $11,000
I was pulling big time for Furyk at the Travelers, so to see him shoot 58 on Sunday was amazing. But, I am looking at that round as an anomaly, where others may look at his top 5 finish as a good result. Furyk was in near the bottom of the leaderboard before his remarkable round, an area of the leaderboard he seems to be finding more often than not. At $11,000 and a likely strong recency bias towards him, I will not have any shares of Furyk this week.
Russell Henley – $9,000
This one hurts me a bit, as I considered myself a Henley guy the last few weeks and he treated me well. What I realized is I am a Henley guy when he is priced below $7,000, and not his absurdly high price for Wyndham. He does seem like a guy who fits the course well, but there is a high chance he misses the cut, as he ranks 88th in scoring average before the cut. I like almost everyone else in his price range more than him. Sorry Russ.
Ben Martin – $8,000
Ben Martin is another guy who is well overpriced for me. He finished 2nd last week at the John Deere that no one watched, so I still don’t believe the finish. Martin has made only 65% of his cuts and has one top 10 on the season, last week. Too much inconsistency for me – no thanks.
So you got burned?
Rickie Fowler – $11,700
When is Rickie going to finish inside of the top 10 again? It seems like ages since he has contended for a title, and last week with his entire country behind him, he finished 37th. Expect a lot of people to be passing on Fowler this week, who will want to redeem himself by representing the USA at the Ryder Cup, a team he is not currently on. His stats are still elite for this field, and it is only a matter of time before he finds his way inside the top 5. Don’t sleep on Fowler this week.
Brandt Snedeker – $9,800
Maybe it’s just me, but it feels like Snedeker had high expectations heading into the PGA Championship, an event he finished 56th at. Maybe Sneds is in this section because he is not a staple for me, but someone I wanted to talk about regardless. On a course where putting is a stat I am looking at Snedeker comes to mind. He’s has multiple top 10 finishes at Sedgefield. He comes into this tournament ranked 1st in Par 4 scoring. I can see low ownership and a sneaky top 5 finish coming.
Chad Campbell – $6,000
Campbell has been a popular play lately due to his low price and better than expected stats. He missed the cut at the Travelers, which I am sure is still fresh in the minds of many DFSers. Campbell is very affordable this week and sets up pretty well for the course. I’m going to ignore the missed cut and see Campbell as a safe bet to make the cut.
Perfect Pivots –
I’m adding another new section to my article, where I try and identify a couple of good pivot plays off of the anticipated chalk each week. This section is inspired by Australian Marcus Fraser, who was a fantastic pivot off of super chalk Alex Cejka.
Jimmy Walker – $10,000
Is it me or does no one seem to be talking about the PGA Champ? Walker comes in at a price tag right below Webb Simpson, who I believe will be super chalky. Walker will scare a lot of people off because of his “bomber” label, but he ranks 25th in strokes gained T2G, 53rd from 150-175 (decent for this field) and 18th in birdie or better percentage. For large field GPPs, go contrarian with Walker.
Tyrell Hatton – $9,400
Hatton’s strong play as of late may pump his ownership up a bit more than I’d like, but he is still a relatively unknown name, and surrounded by popular plays included Simpson, Bill Haas, Wesley Bryan (the shiny new toy) and Kevin Na. I expect name value to play a large part in Hatton’s ownership, but his recent form on both European and North American turf makes him a fantastic pivot.
That’s a wrap folks! I hope you found some helpful information this time around. Give me a follow on Twitter, I’d love to continue the conversation there.
Good luck this week everyone!