📽️ ZOZO Championship DFS Preview, Picks, Fades, Sleepers

Rickie Fowler led the field in strokes gained T2G last week. Hopefully he can carry the confidence to the ZOZO Championship

ZOZO Championship at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan

Course Key Stats

We only have one year’s worth of data for this course. Driving distance is the most strongly correlated stat, with only four other courses ranking higher in terms of correlation with driving distance.

Bentgrass Greens
Par 70
78 Golfers, No cut

 

$10K+ Range

Collin Morikawa (Salary: DraftKings – $11.2K) – Anytime Morikawa can putt well he is a stronger contender to win since he plays reliably well with his irons and his wedges.

  • Gained 3.8 strokes putting last week and finished second
  • Gained 3.8 strokes putting at the Olympics and was in the 7-way playoff for bronze.

Will Zalatoris (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) –  Was a small positive off the tee and on approach at Shriners – a good approach player who could make some noise at this event

Hideki Matsuyama (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) – He will get the hero’s welcome here as he finished second in 2019

Tommy Fleetwood (Salary: DraftKings – $10K) – Using the Holy Grail Tool we can look at round by round data.

  • In the third round at CJ Cup he gained 4.5 strokes on the field, 2 of them are ball-striking. This is the round that would be considered vintage Tommy Fleetwood, hopefully we can see more of this.

Xander Schauffele (Salary: DraftKings – $11K) – His last official PGA Tour win was a 2019 Tournament of Champions – nearly 3 years ago.

 

$9K Range

Steep drop-off in terms of field talent from the 10K range to the 9K range

Rickie Fowler (Salary: DraftKings – $9.8K) – LAST WEEK He led the field in strokes gained tee to green. Rick Fowler, NOT Rory McIlroy, led the field off the tee. Hopefully he can carry the confidence from Las Vegas to this week’s tournament.

Cameron Tringale (Salary: DraftKings – $9.2K) – The best player in this range looking at this season and last season. He’s the only golfer averaging over 1 stroke per round in that time frame in this range. The only golfer gaining strokes in all 4 categories.

Emiliano Grillo (Salary: DraftKings – $9.1K) – Finished with a flurry at Summit Club – Shot the round of the day with a 61 (-11) on Sunday. Only lost 1.5 strokes putting last week.

 

$8K Range

Jhonattan Vegas (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – Had third top 16 in his last 5 starts after finishing 14th at the CJ Cup last week.

Lanto Griffin (Salary: DraftKings – $8.4K) – When he goes well he hits his irons well and putts well which is a dangerous combination. This is why you often see the volatile nature of Lanto.

Adam Shenk  (Salary: DraftKings – $8.2K) – By far bentgrass is his best putting surface.

  • Three straight events in which he has gained strokes on approach.
  • 8 of last 9 events he has gained strokes with the putter

 

$7K Range

Harry Higgs  (Salary: DraftKings – $7.5K) – played well at summit club gaining 4 strokes on approach

Takumi Kanaya  (Salary: DraftKings – $7.2K) – Seasoned amateur golfer with several wins on the Japanese Tour.

 

$6K Range

Matthew NeSmith (Salary: DraftKings – $6.5K) – coming off a 14th place finish at Shriners.

  • He’s not a great putter but he is almost a 0 putter on bent
  • Gained strokes on approach on Shriners

Sung Kang  (Salary: DraftKings – $6.3K) – I’m not a huge Sung Kang fan but I think he’s mispriced. His last 5 events were pretty strong where he’s been positive on approach in all of them and gained a lot of strokes putting in last 3 events

 

Players who find success in no-cut events: Last week Rory McIlroy was #1 when we ran this model

  • Xander Schauffele (1.33 strokes gained per round n=120 rounds)
  • Sebastian Munoz (1.08 strokes gained per round n=40 rounds)
  • Lanto Griffin (0.94 strokes gained per round n=32 rounds)
  • Erik van Rooyen (0.94 strokes gained per round n=32 rounds)

 

Monday’s Custom Model for ZOZO Championship

  • Last 16 rounds
  • Driving Distance: 15%
  • Off-The-Tee: 10%
  • Approach: 25%
  • Birdie or Better: 25%
  • Par 4 Scoring: 25%

Top Players

  1. Jhonatthan Vegas
  2. Will Zalatoris
  3. Si Woo Kim
  4. Joaquin Niemann
  5. Emiliano Grillo
  6. Cameron Tringale
  7. Erik Van Rooyen
  8. Maverick McNealy
  9. Carlos Ortiz
  10. Xander Schauffele

My thoughts on this Custom Model: Pretty volatile group of golfers but I think that’s good for the ZOZO Championship.

Don’t forget: Live Chat on my YouTube channel on Wednesday at 12 PM ET.

Good luck this week!