Article written by Matt “Mizzerski” Mieszerski.
Well it’s Friday and the first week back from the break is now in the books. That leaves us with only one thing to do, kick off this weekend the right way, knocking down some ched. Hopefully you’ve already been successful in some of the weeks previous slates but if not and you’re looking to get that train chugging today then let’s get after it.
Madison Bumgarner is one of those few pitchers that nearly every time he’s on the bump he’s a guaranteed lock/straight chalk. While that’s no different tonight, I’m looking at a couple of other value plays that I believe have great upside and allow you to spend up a bit more for hitters as well as be contrarian in your GPPs.
Adam Conley (MIA, $9.4K) Conley’s coming off a very respectable start in which he sat down 9 Cards but didn’t come away with a decision. He’s posting a solid .86 HR/9 and an 8.86K/9. The Mets are projected to score only 3.9 runs on the day and they’ve had their fair share of struggles vs lefties this year (only a .176 ISO, a 23.8 K% and a .310 wOBA which is in the bottom half of the league year to date.) While Conley’s W-L record might not look all that impressive, he ranks in the 90th percentile of all starting pitchers in wOBA split percentile and he’s holding opposing right handed hitters to just .216 BA on the year.
Lance McCullers(HOU, $8.2K) I know, I know, McCullers has a really small sample size in IP but hear me out here. In his 62.1 IP he’s pacing at 11.9 K/9, a mere .29 HR/9 and an impressive 55.4% GB rate. He’s facing an Angels team that’s been below average all year and their only projected to score 3.6 runs, third lowest on the day, Minute Maid Park always favors pitchers in matchup as well. The Angels have the league’s lowest K % vs righties (just 15.3%) but struggle in other categories as a unit such as a measly .142 ISO vs RHP(7th lowest in the Majors) and they rank in the bottom half of the league in wOBA a .316. McCullers is a bit of a stretch especially with underwhelming starts in his previous two but I’m willing to play the upside here with some positives that I believe will outweigh the hesitaters here.
On the offensive side for today I’m looking at a four deep stack in DC as the Nats host the Padres. While the BoSox are projected to score .7 more runs, which certainly isn’t small potatoes, and you’ve got action in Coors(The Banquet Stadium) I prefer several of the early lineup matchups in Washington. I recommend a 1,3,4,5 stack here featuring Ben Revere($3.6K, OF) Daniel Murphy($4.9K, 2B) Bryce Harper($5.1K, OF) and Wilson Ramos ($3.9K, C.) Revere has his downsides but he has an extremely low K % vs righties(10.1%) and I think provides some interesting upside for being a spark for the Nattys. Daniel Murphy has been essentially straight fire this year, vs righties? Even better. A whopping .431 wOBA(highest amongst all second baseman, .634 SLG and oh yeah over his last 15 games his AVG batted ball speed is up over 3 MPH and his Hard Hit % is 41%. Bryce Harper always has the potential to erupt offensively and like Murphy has lit up righties with a .418 OBP and a .491 SLG. Ramos might actually prefer not having the handedness advantage against Perdomo. He’s been a rock vs righties too, posting a season .400 wOBA, .532 SLG and a quality 13.6 K%. As for who they’re facing today, Perdomo has had his struggles as well, posting only a 14 K% vs left handed hitters and a high 2.14 HR/9 ratio. These things coupled with the success the front half of WAS lineup has had vs righties should allow some nice offense numbers.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.