Article written by Matthew “Mizzerski” Mieszerski.
August is now here which means we’re one month closer to post-season baseball and just one month away from NFL action. Short slate today with only 8 games in store and let me be the first to say I was dead wrong about Dallas Keuchel yesterday as he got torched in Detroit. That’s the beauty of DFS though, you take your lumps and move on, it happens to all of us.
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Chris Archer (10.1K) Archer is coming fresh off two stellar starts in which he fanned 19 and allowed just 3 earned. He’s facing the Royals in today’s matchup and they’ve struggled offensively of late including a 29% Hard Hit %, fourth lowest in the league and a 20.3% Soft Hit % which is third lowest in the league. Tropicana Field is a pitcher friendly park and KC has an implied run total of just 3.6, third lowest on the day. Archer has averaged 7.91 K’s per in his last 10 starts, an average outing of 6 and ⅓ and just a .293 wOBA in that same frame. Archer is coming off a July in which his ERA was 3.38, his AVGA was .205, he had 38 K’s in 32 IP and had a stellar .262 wOBA. The Trop has been a safe haven for him this year too as he’s allowing just a 2.95 ERA, .283 wOBA and only 8 HR in 64 IP at home.
Kyle Hendricks (9.7K) Hendricks heads into Monday posting an 8.81 K/9 which leaves for nice upside on the day. His ISO differential and wOBA split both rank in the 90th percentile on the year and given his 9.7K salary he’s a bargain today given other options on the hill. He’s currently sporting a 52.3% GB%(Marlins have a 48.9% GB % 2nd highest in the league), a soft hit % of 26.2% and a hard hit % of only 25.2%. Only a .277 wOBA and a 1.86 ERA over his past 10 starts make for an even more compelling case to pull the trigger on Hendricks today.
Stack City: Cleveland Indians. The Indians have an implied run total of 4.9 on the day, highest for the slate and they’re solid favorites in Vegas as they face the underwhelming Twins at home. Jason Kipnis (5.1K) Kipnis has seen his hard hit % (47%) average batted ball distance (245 ft) and his fly ball rate (47%) all increase over the past 15 days. He’s pacing a .252 ISO vs RHP and a .383 wOBA over the last 60 days. Mike Napoli (4.8K) Napoli has seen nearly an identical increase in the same hit statistics as Kipnis over the last two weeks and he’s coming off a great performance against OAK in which he racked up 26 points while going 3-3 with a long ball and 2 RBI’s. Tyler Naquin (4.8K) Naquin is slotted for 7th in the lineup which isn’t the most favorable but he’s putting together some great numbers that make a strong case for adding him into the stack rather than Jose Ramirez (4.7K.) He’s hammering a .462 wOBA over his past 60 days and a .373 ISO on the year vs RHP. Couple those with his 172 wRC+ and a .629 SLG and he makes for a solid stack addition in CLE.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.