Article written by Matthew “Mizzerski” Mieszerski.
The weekend has come and gone which means another week to crush and another Monday to get back to the grind for. Six teams are projected to score 5 runs or more on the day and a boatload more are targeted to score 4+.
Fear the beard? Jake Arrieta has hit a bit of a rough patch over his last 7 starts going just 3-3 with a 4.14 ERA and averaging 6 K’s per. His first start back from the break was a good step back in the right direction though. He went 7 innings gave up only 1 ER, 1 BB and struckout 8, the result was a no decision but still nice a nice outing at home against the Mets. We all know just how dominating Arrieta can be when he’s rolling and if his last start is any indication it looks like he’s could be back in Cy Young caliber form. Most of the money in Vegas is flowing toward the Cubs here and US Cellular Field is a pitcher friendly park. As for Arrieta he’s notched 14 K’s in his last two starts, his current K/9 is 9.5, his HR/9 is only .367 and the White Sox are only projected to score 3.5 runs on the day. Over his past 15 days his AVG batted ball distances is a low 181 ft, his hard hit percent is only 26% and his GB rate is a whopping 52.9%. The White Sox are averaging a 46.6% GB rate(10th highest in the league) and have just a .149 ISO(20th in the league.) Look for Arrieta to bounce back strong here with a favorable matchup vs the struggling White Sox who’ve dropped 7 of their last 10. For what it’s worth despite Chris Sale’s strongly differing opinion, I liked the Sox throwbacks. Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard has been an absolute rock for the Mets starting rotation and I expect nothing less from today at home hosting the Cards. He’s 1-1 with a no decision in his last three starts but managed to earn 21 K’s while allowing just a 1.33 ERA. He’s been a stat stuffer all year long(11.04 K/9, 2.68 SIERA & 2.43 xFIP) and with STL projected to score just 2.9 runs on the road at Citi Field I think he’s in a great spot to produce a gem.
The current power kings of the league are the Baltimore Orioles and the opportunity for them to further position themselves as such is a golden one for the taking. Mark Trumbo is the league’s current leader in HR(30) and he’s left the yard in two of his last three games tacking on 5 RBI’s. Trumbo’s found more success vs RHP this year in terms of long ball numbers but he’s still putting some hurt on lefties with a .505 SLG and a .305 ISO. Jonathan Schoop has had a nice July+, he’s batting .339 with a .581 SLG and only a 20.16% K% over his last 30 games. He presents a ton of value on the day given his low salary for the day and with that value comes true upside. I like the matchup today with Adam Jones and De La Rosa. De La Rosa has struggled this season allowing 1.49 HR/9(1.58HR/9 vs RHB) a .338 BABIP and a 6.07 ERA. He’s given up 12 earned runs in his last 3 starts and has only fanned 3 hitters in his last two appearances. Adam Jones has seen his fly ball rate climb to 50 % over the past two weeks plus and that’s a good thing heading into this Monday. He’s coming off of a decent series against CLE(excluding his 0-4 yesterday) in which he hit .500 (.300 with his 0-4) and had a RBI and a BB. The O’s are targeted to score 5.4 runs on the day and it should be a nice hot day in Baltimore which means the ball will be flying.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.