There’s a lot of really bad pitching matchups out there today so it’s going to be hard to look past David Phelps again tonight. Phelps has shined in his recent move to a starter for the Marlins, notching a 1.84 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 14.2 innings over three starts. The only real concern is how many pitches he is going to be able to throw tonight. He’s fired 91 and 90 in his last two starts and while that should be enough to get him through five innings, I’d love to see that number tick closer to 100. He will battle the Pirates who continue to struggle at the dish this season. They rank 19th in wOBA in the last 30 days and strike out at the 12th highest rate this season.
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If you’re willing to take on the risk of a poor matchup, Jake Odorizzi is your man. He is dealing to the tune of a 1.66 ERA over his last six starts and owns the best ERA on this slate in the last thirty days. He’s not a huge strikeout producer, but his recent performance has Vegas giving him the nod as a small -117 favorite tonight. He has a few other positive factors in play tonight. If you have to face the Rangers offense, you want to do it away from Arlington, especially this time of year. And to pitch at Tropicana should provide a big boost to Odorizzi. Tropicana Field is surrendering the 6th fewest runs in the league this season.
Since July 6th, Josh Tomlin has allowed four or more earned runs in a start on four separate occasions. That’s 4 of his 7 starts in that stretch, which pans out to a 6.26 ERA over his last 41.2 IP. It’s even worse in his last three where he’s surrendered 17 earned runs in just 16.1 innings (9.37 ERA). Tomlin leads the league in homers allowed, with 29 on the season. He won’t receive the benefit of pitching at home as Progressive Field has allowed the second most runs in the league both this season and last. The only ballpark more hitter friendly is Coors Field. Does it even matter who his opponent is at this point? Well, if it could get any worse, he will face the Toronto Blue Jays and their formidable offense tonight.
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