Article written by Matthew “Mizzerski” Mieszerski.
In yesterday’s slate I decided to look at some correlations between a positive hard hit and fly ball % and the positive outcome they can have on a hitter’s performance. With the same idea in mind I decided to look at some positive trends for starting pitchers and their recent performances in advanced statistical categories.
Of course with pitchers we want to target guys that are consistent in both their K/9 & K projection as well as their batted ball percentages vs recent hitters. For this piece I decided to evaluate several different categories of importance when trying to narrow down pitchers that you want to roster. If we look at pitchers that’re averaging 7.5-17.5 S0/9 and are facing a team with an implied run total of 1.9-3.9 runs on the day there’s an immediate bump in their overall average performance. To take the projections further we should evaluate pitchers that have a positive hard hit % in recent starts as a deeper look into their stuff over the given time period. If we then add hard hit % to the mix with a range of 10-30% allowed by the starting pitcher we see the trend continue to uptick. Lastly I want to look at the pitcher’s averaged batted ball distance over the previous 15 days. If for this figure we look at an average distance of 100-200ft the trend provides even more upside. On average these pitchers out perform their expected fantasy haul by 15% or roughly 3-3.2 pts. More importantly they do so over 62% of the time which leaves us with an incredibly solid consistency rating.
Using this information we find some pitchers that we can look to possibly target for our slate. Going into the day it’s hard to believe that Stephen Strasburg or Jake Arrieta aren’t the highest priced ace. While Danny Duffy is coming off a huge performance against Tampa Bay in his last outing I’m off him today given the salary and matchup. If we look back at our trend we get several options. The starters of note? Jake Arrieta on the road in Oakland as he’s allowing just a 25% HH% an averaged batted ball distance of only 171 feet over the past 15 days and his season long K/9 is just under 9.5. Tyler Skaggs’ price tag of $10.4K appears a bit lofty and it’s something you’ll either justify or won’t be able to get past. The ballpark and weather factors will favor Skaggs and given his recent performances he falls square into the middle of our trend. While these statistics should not be the sole factor into deciding whether or not he’s roster worthy they are intriguing. Jose Berrios can be a tough sell given his current WHIP of 1.77, yikes, his SO/9 is just over 11 and in our time frame his HH % is only 11% and his averaged batted ball distance is 196 feet. Aaron Sanchez also faces a lofty salary but he’s looking at a favorable matchup against the offensively challenged Royals & sits square in the middle of our trend.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.