I keep writing about Danny Duffy because I can’t help myself. It’s just been incredible what he’s done this season. Remember that he was a reliever, who didn’t pitch more than 1.1 inning in any outing, until May 15th. Since then, he’s made nine starts and is posting a 3.33 ERA. His strikeout numbers are almost eye-popping, as he’s ‘K’ing 58 batters through 48.2 innings. He continues to trend upwards with his pitch count. He’s now thrown 100+ pitches in each of his last two games, which would have been unimaginable just 45 days ago. As if you needed more incentive, he’s going to battle a National League lineup and a bad one! the Phillies rank dead last in wOBA in the last thirty days and also dead last versus LHP overall.
Adam Wainwright is another guy who has gone through a big change this season. It was very uncharacteristic to see him start his season with a brutal 6.80 ERA through his first eight starts. He only struck out 5.2 batters per nine in that span. However, in his eight starts since, Wainwright is posting a 3.51 ERA while striking out 8.1 batters per nine. That second stretch is much closer to what we expect when Wainwright takes the hill. He has the opportunity to keep it going tonight against the struggling Brewers. They rank 22nd in wOBA in the last thirty days and only the Diamondbacks have struck out more!
Wainwright’s counterpart, Jimmy Nelson, is basically have the opposite season. Nelson started out dealing with a 2.88 ERA in his first 11 starts. Since then, the wheels have completely fallen off as he now has a 5.87 ERA in his last five starts. Over the most recent 30 day stretch, he has the highest xFIP (6.45) on the slate and has walked more batters per nine (5.48) than he’s struck out (4.30). That’s going to be a tough combination when he has to face the Cardinals tonight. St. Louis continues to be one of the toughest offenses in the league who can kill you in so many ways.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.