Article written by Matt “Mizzerski” Mieszerski.
Ladies and gentlemen prepare for the best day of the week, Saturday, until the second week of September, then it’s Sunday (Monday and Thursday sometimes too.) Another full fist of action ahead of us which means a plethora of chances to strike liquid gold. Plenty of choices ripe for the taking here especially with some high projected run totals and some good starting pitchers making their way around to the hill again. *Cough* When’s Kershaw coming back? *Cough* We don’t need no Clayton K, we don’t need no lefty swole.
David Price? Chris Sale? Max Scherzer? Jose Fernandez? Cole…Hamels…? Well maybe not necessarily Cole Hamels, but regardless if your head isn’t spinning from picking the right ace or combination of aces than touche. Question here is, can you find the right ace at the right salary with the right matchup and possibly pair them with a nice value picther to afford you the opportunity to build the balanced lineup needed to compete deep into GPPs and in the black on cash games. No worries, we’ve got your back, front and side.
I choose… (Max Scherzer, $13.1K) Pokemon Go reference anyone? Scherzer is a straight K wizard. He’s posting an 11.43 K/9 with a solid .245 BABIP and a low .76 GB/FB ratio. Sweeten the pot? Well, vs Righties he’s posting an even higher 12.07 K/9 a mere .221 wOBA and a whopping .728% strike percentage. San Diego did have a nice offensive showing last night but as they say history repeats itself. SD has just a .243 team BA(24th lowest in the MLB) a meager .161 ISO means they’re not a deep threat on the night and their 24.5% K% means they’re prone to the forward and backward K. Washington is a solid favorite vs the Padres and rightfully so, they’re only forecast to score 2.7 runs(lowest on the night.) I’ll be honest here, Sale, Price and Fernandez are all great options as well but I’ll take Scherzer here with the odds ever in our favor(that’s because they have SD at home.)
John Lackey (10.6K) While Lackey might be a rung below our night’s aces I’m gonna say with the matchup impending, it’s just a slight rung below. While the Cubbies are on the road he’s got a great matchup vs the BrewCrew. He’s posting a 9.24 K/9 and a season BA of only .217. Lackey has a GB % of 47.6% which should matchup well with MIL who has a team average GB % of 47.4% They’re only projected to score 3.8 runs on the night and rightfully so given their dismal K % of 26.2% vs R(25.6% overall) coupled with a team wOBA of just .309(6th lowest in MLB) and a minor .144 ISO. All of this means that the Brewers should keep the ball on the ground when they put it in play and if they don’t, look for some nice K numbers from Lackey.
Stacks, stacks, stacks, stacks, stacks, everybody stacks! We face options of a Coors stack, a Red Sox stack, a Canadian stack and a DC stack. All great options, but with the thought that you’ll spend more in SP today I looked for a viable value stack. Stage left enter the Yankees at home against Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija is currently allowing 1.48 HR/9 and .364 wOBA on the year. Since May 30th his player performance has been classified as “terrible” compared to his DK/FD salary giving up .75 runs per IP including only 5K’s or more in 7 of his last 9 starts. Hence my look at the left handed heavy Yanks lineup featuring multiple nice plays in the lineup from spots 1-6. I would lean toward an Ellsbury, McCann, Gregorious, and Teixeira play if you’re looking 4 deep. Ellsbury is pacing a 42% FB rate over the past 15 days and extremely playable numbers vs RHP including an 11.2% K%, a .329 wOBA and a .748 ops. When McCann isn’t staring down hitters he believed embellished a long shot he’s busy destroying RHP. He’s currently looking at a 42% FB vs RHP and an ISO of .210. Short porch in right? Yep. As for Didi Gregorious, I mean where do we start? Lately he’s been a beast at the dish. Over the last 15 days his AVG batted ball distance is up 34 feet, batted ball speed up 5 MPH over his season average, hard hit percentage is now 41%, his AVG batted ball distance is 235 feet and his flyball rate is 45%. Texy? Well, straight upside here against a pitcher who struggles vs LHB. His current ISO split vs RHP is .209 and his OPS is .577. It’s important to note that Tex does have an unfavorably high K % vs RHP but if you’re trying to exploit matchup then by all means swing for the fences vs Jeffrey S. I will.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.