Worth a flier tonight could be Jon Gray. It’s no secret that Gray has been knocked around at times this season, but he also plays in the most hitter friendly park in the world. Over the course of his two year career, his 5.57 home ERA shrinks to 3.86 on the road. Today he will see the biggest ballpark boost as he heads to San Diego to face the Padres. What’s not in question for Gray is his strikeout ability. His 9.88 K/9 in the last 30 days is second best on this slate to Chris Archer. We could see some incredible upside tonight against San Diego who ranks dead last in wOBA in the last 30 days and striking out at (by far) the highest rate in the league.
We’ve talked about Rich Hill going back and forth between the mound and the DL this season, but you have to be cautiously optimistic tonight. Since joining the Dodgers, he’s made two starts and has yet to allow a run over those 12 innings. He’s tacked on 11 K’s in the process and will be pitching in the massive Marlins Park tonight against Miami who ranks 27th in wOBA in the last 30 days.
I’m looking at the Cardinals as one of the better stack options tonight. They own a .223 ISO in the last 30 days, which is significantly higher than the rest of the league. Their ISO is 22 points higher than the next closest team (BAL), which is the same amount that separates Baltimore and the Yankees, who rank 9th in ISO. That’s how far ahead STL is! They are going to face Chase Anderson who’s been respectable, but his 91.3 LOB% jumps off the screen. That number is very unsustainable and would indicate he’s in line for some regression.
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