Article written by Matthew “Mizzerski” Mieszerski.
Max Kepler keeps riding that platinum wave of performance and if you had a Rays stack against Edison Volquez then congratulations, reap those benefits. This Thursday brings us another opportunity to grind and knock down some contests. Like Shawn Carter famously said “I’m not a businessman I’m a business, man.”
Drew Smyly (7.6K) Smyly is on the bump at home against the Royals in their final matchup of the series today. As I mentioned yesterday with my recommendation of Odorizzi the Royals have really struggled offensively of late (.101 ISO, .256 wOBA, 54 wRC+) & with yesterday’s shutout in Tampa the Royals have now averaged just 2.25 runs in their last 4 games. Smyly has seen more success at home this year posting just a 26.2% HH%, 27.3% K% and a 1.07 WHIP all at the Trop. Though it is important to note that over the past 15 days he’s seen his HH % rise to 30% and July was certainly not a favorable month for him. All in all, his $7.6K salary makes him a nice value and a viable candidate for some good exposure.
J.A. Happ (11.6K) Happ’s $11.6K salary make him the highest priced pitcher on the slate and his salary has risen from 7.7K in his last four starts. He’s in a pitcher friendly park in Houston but the question here will be if the price tag is just too lofty. He’s in a pitcher friendly park in Houston and he’s averaging a 1.03 HR/9 & just a 1.16 WHIP on the 2016 campaign. Happ also had a favorable July with a 12.09 K/9 an average batted ball distance of just 169 feet in the last 15 days and an average fantasy point per of 28.5 in his last 5 outings including 8.4 K’s averaged over that stretch and just a 1.25 ERA.
Wade Miley (6.7K) Miley’s short salary make him a nice value play on the day at home against the O’s. In the month of July Miley drew a 1.21 WHIP, 1.17 HR/9 plus in the last 15 days he’s seen his HH % fall to just 24% and his averaged batted ball distance is down to just 192 feet over the same frame. Wade is also coming off a nice performance on the road in Wrigley in which he went 7 strong, gave up 1ER, allowed just 1H and sat down 9 Cubbies.
Stack Play: The Pirates have an implied run total of 4.7 on the day and they’ll have several handedness matchups that should favor some key lineup matchups on the day. John Jaso (2.7K) With a price tag at just $2.7K Jaso vs a RHP should be an immediate lock. Versus righties he’s showing a .329 wOBA, .401 SLG, a positive ISO split. Over his past 15 he’s seen his average batted ball distance climb by 54 feet to 250ft, his HH% rise to 52% and his FB% is at 63% in said stretch. Gregory Polanco (5.2K) Polanco also has some favorables against RHP including a solid .336 wOBA and .195 ISO. Prior to his 0-4 last night in game one of the series in Atlanta he had two very respectable performances back to back including 2 long balls and 2 RBI’s to boot. Matthew Joyce (3.8K) Joyce is another good play due to his value, handedness and spot in the lineup. He’s hitting a .397 wOBA and .267 ISO vs RHP on the year and in the last 15 days his HH% has risen five points to 40%.
Value Plays: David Dahl (3.8K) Dahl has averaged 10.5 pts over his past 6 games and he’s been a rock vs RHP with a .478 wOBA and a .333 ISO. His consistency rating coupled with the price tag and the lure of Coors Field make him a nice roster on the day. Stephen Vogt (2.8K) Vogt is expected to be 3rd in the A’s lineup at Anaheim and with an asking price so low he won’t need much in the way of production to meet salary expectations. Versus RHP he’s pacing a .333 wOBA and in the past two weeks he’s seen his FB% raise to 53%. Favorable weather conditions and a pitching matchup vs Ricky Nolasco (1.42 WHIP and 42% HH rate in L15) make his rostering that much more appealing.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.