Article written by Matthew “Mizzerski” Mieszerski.
Despite the short slate we’re faced with today there are plenty of good matchups and even more chances to pad the bankroll. Maybe even parlay your success in MLB into some equal chances in the PGA Championship this week.
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It seems like a hard sell to pass on Jose Fernandez but I think given the “value” options on the day it’s worth a look. Cole Hamels(9.9K) Hamels is in a nice spot to have some solid upside here. Over his last 10 starts he’s gone an average of 6.34IP, allowed only a .283 wOBA and a .242 ERA. He’s currently posting an 8.62 K/9, he’s averaged 20.46 FPTS in his last 30 days and his fantasy upside here is very high. Kansas City has also struggled of late as the injuries have taken their toll. They’ve lost 7 of their last 10 and they’re only average 3.7 runs over that span.
Jacob deGrom(10.3K) deGrom has been professional stat stuffer all year long. Over his last 10 starts he’s allowing just 3.09 runs, averaged 7.35 K/9, managed a .264 wOBA including a .213 wOBA vs LHB and an ERA of only 2.51. Citi Field is a pitcher friendly park and that amongst a favorable matchup should allow deGrom to tip the scales in his favor. While Rockies are a run and stat factory at home they’ve had much less luck on the road in lower altitudes. Only a .293 wOBA(3rd worst,) an 80 wRC+(2nd worst,) .296 OBP(worst in ML) 23.4% K%(5th worst) and a .145 ISO(8th worst.) COL has an implied run total of only 2.9 runs in the matchup and with the upside available I believe deGrom has room for a huge performance and an opportunity to crush salary expectations.
We’re back to the stack game today and while several games have a nice potential they have a proclivity to not be salary friendly. With several high dollar pitchers on the map I think it’s worth spending up in SP and finding value on the offensive side of the ball. Milwaukee has an implied run total of 4.84 runs on the day, they’re drawing some strong action in Vegas and despite a poor showing last night the Brew Crew have a nice value based stack that’s positioned to put up some solid numbers. Ryan Braun(5.2K) He’s averaged 16.6 FPTS over his last 5 games, he’s currently sporting a .468 woBA vs LHP(.425 over his last 10,) and an extremely favorable .259 ISO split vs LHP. Jonathan Lucroy(3.8K) He’s in a favorable lineup position on the day and has seen consistent performance vs LHP including a .387 wOBA over the last 60 days(.342 wOBA overall,) and a .425 matchup wOBA vs Ray given his wOBA splits. Chris Carter(3.7K) Carter is really either a swing or a miss. His .285 ISO vs LHP and .374 matchup wOBA over his past 60 give him tremendous upside. He’s also pacing a .421 wOBA and .479 SLG vs LHP. Carter does have a high K upside unfortunately and as quickly as he could go 4-4 with 2 HR and 4 RBI’s he can go 0-4 with 4 strikeouts. It’s a risk you should be willing to take in GPPs but pass on in cash games.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.