Article written by Matthew “Mizzerski” Mieszerski.
Tuesday’s might very well be the day of the week that people are the most indifferent about (myself included.) However we’ve got a full 15 game slate in store for today and there’s an abundance of opportunity to take down a GPP and some cash games to boot. Let’s get it.
Danny Salazar($9.5K.) Washington’s implied run total on the day is only 3.6 and they’re dogs on the road in Believeland Honestly there are several intriguing pitching options on the day but in my opinion none more so than Salazar. He’s 5-0 over his past 7 starts including a 7K effort in his last appearance(7-3 win vs CLE.) Salazar presents great K potential with a 9.54 K/9 and a 27.% K%. While Washington isn’t necessarily a team you want to target often, especially given their power upside, they’ve struggled in some offensive categories of late. They’re currently posting just a .245 team BA over their past 30 days(bottom five in the league), 92 wRC+ & .306 wOBA vs RHP both of those final two stats fall into the bottom half of the league and their .281 BABIP is second to last in the majors( only .265 over the last 30 days, dead last in MLB.) The Nationals should bring a lefty heavy lineup into the day and that might actually favor Salazar despite the handedness difference. His wOBA vs LHB is only .257 and his K % rises to 29.5 %. Marcus Stroman($8.4K.) It should come as no surprise that SD has another low implied run total (3.7) which comes on the heels of a 2 run 5 hit effort. Stroman’s coming off a nice four game stretch in which he averaged slightly under 20 DraftKings points, 2 of those 4 performances were 27 points +. Stroman is a strong ground ball pitcher averaging a 60.6% GB rate while SD has a 45.6% GB rate 12th highest in the league. His reasonable K expectancy(current K/9 is 6.58) amongst other factors make San Diego a good target. Versus RHP their team wOBA is just .290(2nd lowest in the league) while their wRC+ is only 82(3rd worst in the league.)
While the Sox sputtered offensively in their first of a three game homestand there’s plenty of good reason to think they’ll bounce back this afternoon. They’re projected to score 6.5 runs(highest on the day) and over the past thirty days they lead the majors in a variety of offensive categories. They face a starting pitcher in Mike Pelfrey who’s struggled as well(5.33 SIERA and .385 wOBA) allowing 12 hits, 6 runs, 5 walks and only 1 strikeout in his past two outings. David Ortiz($5.7K) Ortiz’ price is steep and will probably lean this way the rest of the year given his incredible final campaign thus far. A consistency rating of 53% this year, 15.67 pts averaged over his last 3 games and a .393 ISO split vs RHP makes him a great play. Mookie Betts($5.6K) Mookie is in the middle of a great three game stretch. An average of 20.67 pts per over the past three games including 2 HR’s, 3 RBI’s and a double. His 148 wRC+ and .385 wOBA vs RHP add to the attraction, his only downfall is price. Dustin Pedroia($4.9K) Pedey continues to trend of being in the middle of a favorable clip of games. He’s averaged 15.75 points over his last four, his averaged batted ball distance is up 30 feet over the past 15 days(which includes a spike in hard hit % to 48% over the past 15 days) and his favorable wOBA, wRC+ and SLG(.361, 121, & .465) numbers vs RHP all make him worthy of the third member in a BOS stack.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.