Article written by Matthew “Mizzerski” Mieszerski.
The August 1st trade deadline is fast approaching which means several more moves are looming throughout the league. In the meantime we’ve been chalk full of slates these past few days and today will be no different.
Madison Bumgarner(13.2K) Bumgarner’s the highest priced pitcher on the day and some may not be able to justify that salary when you also have Stephen Strasburg on the hill. For me the matchup it’s all about matchup here and Madison is setup to crush the Reds and light up the DFS board. He’s currently posting a 10.16K/9(9.67 average over his past 3 starts) and that number should stay steady today against a Red team that’s currently 8th highest(or worst depending on how you view it) in total team K’s. Bum’s also posted some favorable numbers at home this year including a .242 BABIP, .227 wOBA and a very low .47HR/9, P.S. ATT Park is a strong pitcher friendly park. To compound those numbers the Reds have really struggled both against lefties and on the road. Against lefties? 23.3% K%(8th worst in MLB,) 89 wRC+ and just a .311 wOBA(both 7th worst in MLB.) On the road? A mere 80 wRC+(3rd worst in MLB,) a .295 wOBA(5th worst in the MLB) and a .290 BABIP(8th worst in MLB.) $2,600 more in salary isn’t a small price but I think the upside here is to good to pass on.
Adam Conley(9.0K) I chose to ride with Conley in his last start and he failed to deliver earning just 10.7 points with only 3 SO in 6 IP. Regardless, for today’s slate I’m going back to the well here, he’s got a favorable matchup and I think he’s positioned well to nicely outperform his $9K salary. Conley’s been very respectable at Marlins Park this year allowing just a .210 AVG, .264 BABIP, .276 wOBA as well as managing just a .51HR/9. He’s currently 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in July and opponents are batting just .198 against him this month. The K upside still exists with his current 8.62K/9 and the Phillies 23.5% K% which is 5th worst in the majors. As for the Phillies in this matchup they have an implied run total of just 3.4, 3rd lowest on the day, and they’ve struggled vs LHP. Just a .278 wOBA(worst in MLB,) a 69 wRC+(worst in MLB,) a very poor .114 ISO(2nd to last MLB,) and a total team AVG of just .243(5th worst in MLB.) Fool me once shame on me, fool me twice? I’ve got faith here in Conley.
While looking at hitters for the day I wanted to try a different take instead of a stack recommendation I’m looking at a good GPP, cash and value play for the day’s slate. GPP? Howie Kendrick(4.7K) Kendrick has been hot in the month of July and he’ll have the handedness advantage vs Matt Moore today. He’s currently pacing a .333 wOBA, 110 wRC+ and a .371 BABIP vs LHP. His July thus far? A .377 AVG with a monster .449 wOBA, a 189 wRC+ and his batted ball distance increase to 236 ft over the past 15 days. The weather in LA tomorrow will help Howie as well with temperatures in the high 80’s to low 90’s and the wind blowing out to center.
Cash Game? Max Kepler(4.5K) The Twins are implied to score 5.1 runs on the day and if the weather can hold up at Target Field then Kepler’s positioned well to have a nice performance at home against the league’s doormat Atlanta Braves. He’ll have a favorable ISO split vs the RHP Foltynewicz of .295 and his hard hit % has risen to 47% over the past 15 days. He’s averaged 14.5 pts in his previous two games with 2 triples, a walk and only 1K. His opposing SP Michael Foltynewicz has had some issues this year both on the road and vs lefties currently allowing a .371 wOBA on the road and a .360 wOBA, .567 SLG and 4.98 xFIP vs LHB.
Value Play? Victor Martinez(3.5K) Martinez has a ton of value in today’s game for a number of reasons. His current hard hit % is up to 43% over the past 15, the Tigers have an implied run total of 5 runs on the day and he’s sporting some strong numbers vs LHP on the road. 11 of his 17 HR have come on the road this year & he’s posting a .581 SLG, .900 OPS, .379 wOBA, and 137 wRC+ in the aforementioned split. All in all he’s parked in a great spot in the Tiger’s lineup on a day in which they should score well and in a series that they’ve already notched 13 runs in two games.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.