It’s been a long season for Dallas Keuchel, but he’s settling in after a terrible start. Keuchel was drilled for a 5.92 ERA over his first ten starts of the season, while opponents hits .294 against him. He’s pitched much better recently, dropping his ERA to 4.18 in his last five starts and opponents hitting on .236. Those are clearly “un-Keuchel-like” numbers, but his strikeouts are up to 9.46 K/9 over the last 30 days, which is 6th best on this slate. Maybe most surprisingly, he owns the best xFIP on the slate (2.37) which would indicate he’s been extremely unlucky this season. The matchup with the Royals is a bit concerning, but the Royals are nearly as potent as they were last season. They are striking out closer to 20% over the last 30 days, which would have been unheard of last season. Kechuel would be a GPP play tonight, but definitely someone to keep an eye on moving forward.
Kyle Hendricks is dealing right now. Over his last six starts, he’s posted a dazzling 2.33 ERA while striking out nearly nine batters per nine innings. He’s allowed two or more runs in only one of those six starts. He’s coming off a career high 12 strikeouts against the Pirates which should keep him front of mind around the industry. He will benefit from pitching in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks tonight in Miami.
I think the most interesting matchup on the slate is Jered Weaver versus the Oakland Athletics. Weaver was spectacular just five days ago against these A’s. He spun a shutout surrendering only three hits in the process. That was a shocking outcome, considering Weaver has been brutal in basically every other start this season. Over the previous nine starts, Weaver was crushed by a .920 OPS against him and a 6.54 ERA. So what gives tonight? I suspect Weaver will be owned more than he should based on recency bias. I am certainly not sold that Weaver has another dominant performance in him, considering he’s shown no other signs of that all season long.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.