Plenty of pitching options today with a slate that has seven guys with at least 10 K/9 this season. The popular play will be Noah Syndergaard against the Padres. I am not overlooking Vince Velasquez ($10,200) against the Marlins. Velasquez has been great for the Phillies this season, sporting an 11.2 K/9 which is 4th most on this slate. He’s only allowed five ER this season and has tallied scoreless outings in three of his five starts this year. The Marlins have made some noise lately, but as you can imagine, they struggle at home in their massive ballpark. Despite being a top 10 offense on the year, they are below average at Marlins Park. They’ve only been able to tack on nine HRs in Miami this year, the 6th fewest for home teams.
Rick Porcello ($9,100) continues to roll, now earning a 5-0 record with a 2.76 ERA. His 3.01 xFIP is third best on this slate while piling on just under ten Ks per nine innings. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last 13.1 IP (two starts) while adding 12 Ks and a ridiculous 21 ground-balls. That’s 33 of 40 outs being recorded by strikeout or groundball. Now he gets the Yankees whose struggles have been well-documented. They are 24th in wOBA for both the season and the last seven days. Porcello faced the Yankees in his last start, earning a win in seven scoreless innings while scattering five hits.
Something doesn’t add up with Mat Latos. On paper, he is 4-0 with a dazzling 1.84 ERA. But if you look deeper, you’ll notice his 4.96 xFIP is fourth-worst on the slate while his low K/9 (4.6) and 40.4% FB% are usually indications that he is getting shelled. It seems like he’s in-line for a correction in variance. He’s allowed 18 hits in his last 11 innings while only surrendering five ER. He’s actually defying logic right now and this cannot be sustainable. Let’s face it, the Minnesota Twins are not a great offensive team, so I would temper expectations tonight. Just keep them in mind for GPPs and keep Latos on your radar moving forward.
Yordano Ventura is another guy who has been concerning. He’s nearly walking more batters per nine than he’s strikeout at (6.67 BB/9 vs. 7.33 K/9). He owns the worst xFIP on this slate and has really benefitted from an 80.5% LOB%. That’s another rate that is unlikely to sustain. The sheer number of baserunners he is allowing is going to bite him at some point. The Cleveland Indians haven’t taken advantage this young season but Progressive Field is a very hitter-friendly park, allowing the 6th most runs scored this season and the second-most last season.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.