Honestly, this is a pretty poor slate when it comes to pitching options. Not a single pitcher (with any legit sample size) can boast a 10+ K/9. Dallas Keuchel ($9,900) is my favorite pitching option on the slate. I reckon that many owner will flock to Johnny Cueto who is coming off a massive game, leaving Keuchel under-owned. Keuchel has been sub-par this season but I am willing to give him a pass. Four of his first five starts have been on the road, where his has historically struggled. He posted a 3.77 ERA on the road last season, while notching a ridiculous 1.46 ERA at home, springing him to a Cy Young award. It’s been much of the same this year, where his best start has been his only start at home, netting him 26.4 DraftKings points. Now he will get the Twins who rank 21st in wOBA this season and 28th versus LHP. Only three teams strikeout more versus LHP than the Twins.
This slate presents the opportunity to buy on Jon Gray ($7,900). Gray has a tiny sample size of 8.2 IP this season, but he leads the slate in both xFIP and K/9. Gray flashed his tremendous upside in his first start of the year, striking out 10 Dodgers in five innings. He will have the opportunity to get away from Coors Field and pitch in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The only thing friendlier than the Padres stadium is the Padres themselves. The Padres rank 28th in wOBA this season and have made just about every pitcher they’ve faced look like Clayton Kershaw. They’ve already been shutout seven times this season in over 25 games.
Jered Weaver continues to walk a very fine line this season. His advanced metrics would indicate he has been terrible but his standard stats show he’s 3-0 with a serviceable 3.86 ERA. On the advanced side, he owns a 6.03 xFIP (worst on the slate), which would indicate he is running well above expectation. His lack of strikeouts (4.24/9, worst on slate) and massive FB rate (52.5%, worst on slate) would indicate a big correction is coming to Weaver. Tonight is the chance to buy the Milwaukee Brewers who have struggled themselves in a big way. They are a bottom five offensive team in most splits, but are the 12th best hitting team at home. That might not sound like much, but when you see a large jump in a split like that, it’s hard to overlook. Miller Park is extremely hitter-friendly and the Brewers are an above-average team when playing there. They’ve shown plenty of pop, hitting 17 HRs at home, which is second best in the league. Buy up Weaver’s opponents because he is on the verge of a big time correction in variance.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.