I’ll be really interested to see the ownership on Chris Archer ($10,100) tonight. He’s coming off a stellar ten strikeout outing against the Orioles for 36 DraftKings points. He owns the highest K/9 but will face the potent Blue Jays tonight. However, I believe the Jays are perceived as a much worse matchup than they’ve been this season. Many owners will avoid targeting pitchers against the Jays who notched the highest wOBA in the league last season, by far. They simply haven’t been the same this young season. They’ve been very average, ranking 13th in runs scored, 13th in homers and 13th in wOBA. They are also striking out at 25.4%, which is the 4th highest rate in the league. The facts are pretty clear that the Jays haven’t been nearly as potent as they were last season.
Rick Porcello ($8,200) has been quietly very good for the Red Sox this season. He’s scored no fewer than 18.7 DraftKings points in any game this season, while scoring 25.3, 27.6 and 26.7 DK points over his last three outings. He has an unblemished 4-0 record and pitching no less than six innings in any game. He’s notched a 10.52 K/9 this season, the 3rd best on the slate (at least 12 IP). Tonight he will face the Yankees who have struggled mightily. They have the 4th lowest wOBA in the last seven days and have scored the fewest runs in that span. Additionally, they’ve been terrible on the road, ranking 28th in wOBA away from Yankee Stadium.
The Pittsburgh Pirates really jump off the screen today. They’ve been excellent this season, checking in with the 2nd best wOBA and scoring the 2nd most runs in the last seven days. Tonight, they take on Alfredo Simon who has scored NEGATIVE fantasy points in each of his last three games. He actually has a net negative fantasy point total over his first four starts. That means YOU have scored more fantasy points than Simon this season. He’s been shelled for 17 hits over his last 3.2 IP and surrendering four HRs in the span. There’s no team hotter than the Pirates right now, facing the pitcher who is struggling the most.
NOTE: Here’s what I wrote about Liriano yesterday before finding out Nicasio was starting. A much sneakier stack tonight will be in the Cincinnati Reds. They will take on Francisco Liriano who was dazzling in his first start of the season, and has hung plenty of crooked numbers since. Liriano allowed three hits, no runs and struck out ten in six innings of work on Opening Day. In the 15.1 IP since (3 games), Liriano has allowed 16 hits, 11 runs and five homers. Even more concerning, he’s walked 12 batters in that stretch. Now, he will have to face a Reds team, that owns the 8th best wOBA versus LHP this season and have seen plenty of Liriano over the years. There are nine Reds that have at least 10 PAs versus LHP this season and five of them (Suarez, Phillips, Duvall, Cozart, Holt) are hitting at least .375.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.