We talked about Jon Gray five days ago and we continue to have to do so at this price. Am I thrilled with the matchup against the Giants? No. However, anytime you can get Gray away from Coors is important, especially in a pitcher-friendly stadium like AT&T Park. He does have a smaller sample size than most, but Gray owns the best xFIP on this slate while racking up a ton of strikeouts. He’s piled on 23 Ks in just 14.2 IP this season, including 11 Ks in six innings in his last time out. I’d focus on Gray in GPPs as opposed to cash games.
I think Julio Teheran is very interesting tonight. After a miserable start to the season, Teheran has turned it around and pitched much better in the last three weeks. Teheran surrendered 12 ER over his first 17 IP (3 starts) this season, but has only allowed 3 ER over his last 19.1 IP (3 starts). His last three have been against some potent offenses in CHC, BOS and LAD. He’s tallied 17 Ks in his last 14 IP and will battle a struggling Diamondbacks team tonight. Arizona owns the fifth worst wOBA in the last seven days while scoring the second fewest runs in that span. This is a case of a pitcher trending in the right direction while his opponent is trending in the wrong direction.
Speaking of trends, the Milwaukee Brewers have been quietly slugging the ball this week. They own the 3rd best wOBA in the last seven days, with no team scoring more runs than they have. Tonight the Brewers will battle Brandon Finnegan who is a bit of a question mark right now. He’s dealing with a hamstring injury, but all indications are that he will make this start. Injuries aside, Finnegan has been knocked around in his last three starts, surrendering 11 ER from 18 hits in just 16.1 IP. He’s not missing any bats right now, striking out just 7.15 K/9 while walking 4.76 BB/9. Not a good combination, especially when you play at Great American Ballpark which will expose your deficiencies.
If you’re following along, you know that I think Jered Weaver is going to get a major correction in variance. Here’s what I wrote before he last start:
Jered Weaver continues to walk a very fine line this season. His advanced metrics would indicate he has been terrible but his standard stats show he’s 3-0 with a serviceable 3.86 ERA. On the advanced side, he owns a 6.03 xFIP (worst on the slate), which would indicate he is running well above expectation. His lack of strikeouts (4.24/9, worst on slate) and massive FB rate (52.5%, worst on slate) would indicate a big correction is coming to Weaver.
This is all still true and we saw a bit of that correction as he got shelled for 11 hits and seven ER against the Brewers in his last start. Tonight he battles a Tampa Bay Rays team who has slugged the third most HRs in the last seven days and are ninth in wOBA in that span.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings strategy and scoring.