Is Matt Harvey starting to round into form? It certainly looks like it. Harvey had a dismal start to the season, getting knocked all over the yard, to the tune of a 6.08 ERA in his first ten starts of the season. Opponents were batting .330 off him and he was striking out only 7.4 batters per nine innings. However, in his last four starts, Harvey has looked much better, posting a 2.08 ER in 26 innings and allowing opponents to hit only .172 off of him. His strikeouts are still down, which is a big concern, but he faces the worst offense in the league this season in the Atlanta Braves. Not only have they been bad this season, but also lately. They rank 29th in wOBA in the last thirty days while slugging the fewest homers in that span.
This is a really bad slate when it comes to strikeouts. There is no pitcher who has more than 10 K/9 in the last thirty days, which is rare to see on any slate. If you’re looking for value, consider Albert Suarez of the San Francisco Giants. It’s not that I love Suarez as a pitcher but the Pirates have really struggled offensively this month, ranking 25th in wOBA in the last 30 days. In that same timeframe, they are striking out at 23.9% which ranks as the 7th most in the league. Suarez is even money to win on the road so he’s even more valuable on sites with significant win bonuses.
It’s easy to point to the Cubs (vs. Chen) and Red Sox (vs. Shields) today. Both teams will be heavily owned across the board. Let’s look a little deeper at the…Padres?! Yes the San Diego Padres are making some serious noise right now. They have significantly improved from their treacherous start to the season. In the last seven days, they rank 6th in wOBA and only three teams have scored more runs. This improved stretch goes back further than just a week as they rank 12th in wOBA in the last month which is better than the Astros, Nationals and Giants. They will receive one of the biggest ballpark boosts of the evening, getting away from Petco Park and traveling to the Great American Ballpark. Finally, they will face John Lamb whose 4.86 xFIP is fourth-worst on the slate.
That’s all folks! Be sure to follow me on Twitter for more player analysis and news as starting lineups are released! Commentary based on DraftKings & Fanduel strategy and scoring.